Last term, the government repeatedly refused to revise or release business cases for light rail stage two (Civic to Woden), on the grounds of commercial sensitivity. Now, after a ruling from the Independent Legal Arbiter, the Canberra Liberals have made the ACT Government’s long-suppressed business cases publicly available — showing a benefit cost ratio of only 0.27 in one version, and a timeline now a decade behind schedule.

The ACT Government, however, said that the 2018 business case was a draft prepared under an outdated assumption that light rail to Woden would be delivered in a single stage. A new business case — including revised costings and assessments of stage 2B — will be developed once planning and environmental approvals are complete.

The ACT Government argues that light rail is a once-in-a-generation asset for Canberra: an environmentally friendly, modern, integrated public transport system that will reduce traffic congestion as Canberra grows, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and support the construction of more housing. But others have called for a halt to light rail, arguing it is a waste of money and that the government has not been transparent with the project’s costs or timing; and that electric buses (recommended in the original report) would be cheaper, faster, more flexible, and better for the environment.

The 2018 business case (part 1, part 2) shows a return of only 27 cents for each dollar spent — one of the lowest benefit-cost ratios in ACT infrastructure history, according to the Canberra Liberals. (An updated 2019 business case shows that the project only reaches viability if wider economic benefits are included, assumptions the ACT Auditor-General previously questioned.)

“The project doesn’t stack up,” Canberra Liberals leader Leanne Castley MLA said. “It generates just 27 cents in benefit for the community for every dollar spent. That’s not a 27 per cent profit, it’s a 73 per cent loss. We are losing $3 in every $4 we invest — the worst return I have ever seen.”

The government said the benefit-cost ratio of 0.27 was 0.94, and is not applicable to Stage 2B.

Associated works, such as roadworks along Parkes Way or the $60 million cost of raising London Circuit, were excluded from core costings. The government said Parkes Way and the London Circuit raising were considered separate projects, not part of the core light rail scope.

The estimated capital cost nearly doubled between 2018 and 2020, from $1 billion to $1.9 billion (according to the Australia and New Zealand Infrastructure Pipeline). Light rail is expected to be completed in 2033, a full decade behind the original forecast of 2023.

“A 10-year delay for their flagship infrastructure project,” Ms Castley said. “This confirms that Labor can’t manage money … And they can’t deliver on their promises.”

Infrastructure works may require removing two traffic lanes on Commonwealth Avenue Bridge and the T2 lane on Adelaide Avenue, despite warnings this would worsen congestion on major arterial roads.

“Traffic is already a nightmare on these roads,” Ms Castley said. “Imagine how much worse it will be when we close off these lanes.”

According to the business case, the government might also demolish and rebuild State Circle tunnels near Parliament House and replace Commonwealth Avenue Bridge.

The government said the preferred alignment includes a new bridge between the existing Commonwealth Avenue Bridges, preserving existing road capacity, and that traffic modelling and environmental impact assessments are under way. While early designs had flagged the potential demolition of tunnels or replacement of Commonwealth Avenue Bridge, the government now says these are not required under the current design. It reiterated that detailed costings would follow the planning phase.

“We can see now why the Labor Government fought so hard against the release of these secret documents for so many years,” Ms Castley said. “They reveal the government’s hidden plans that will result in a huge waste of taxpayer money and permanently increase congestion in our city.”

The government defended its past non-disclosure on the grounds of protecting its commercial position during procurement processes, saying it had followed Cabinet guidelines and would release updated documents once risks were no longer present. It pointed to the earlier release of Stage 1 and 2A business cases and contracts as evidence of its commitment to transparency.

Independent Legal arbiter Keith Mason AC KC ordered the ACT Government earlier this month to release previously withheld documents on light rail costs and health expenditure. Chief Minister Andrew Barr had argued the documents were “cabinet in confidence”. Ms Castley asked Mr Mason to make a ruling; he found no valid grounds for Mr Barr’s claims, stating that the documents contained important fiscal and planning information, but did not reveal internal cabinet deliberations or pose any risk to future tender processes.

“Using the power of the Legislative Assembly Standing Orders, we have forced the ACT Labor Government to reveal the costs of light rail, and say to all Labor Ministers: this is just the start,” Ms Castley said. “Taxpayers must know where their money is being spent and on what. This is a Canberra Liberals principle and [we] will do what is needed to shine a light on other Labor projects whose costs they have hidden.”

ACT Greens transport spokesman Andrew Braddock MLA defended the project, calling light rail “essential infrastructure” that reduces traffic, pollution, and cost-of-living pressures on car-dependent households. He dismissed the Liberals’ case as misleading and outdated, saying the 2019 update “showed the project still stacks up”, even without long-term benefits like better connectivity and urban renewal.

The Greens argue that the first stage of light rail has shown it is “a great investment” for the ACT: frequent and predictable tram journeys, more housing, and a 20 per cent boost in business activity along the route. Mr Braddock noted that light rail accounts for less than 1 per cent of total government spending and only 14 per cent of the transport budget – a quarter of what the ACT spends on roads.

“Spending endlessly on roads is a choice the government can no longer afford to make…” Mr Braddock said. “People don’t want to live in a nest of highways. They want to live in safe, leafy, connected communities, which is what rapid transport like light rail delivers.”

Independent MLA Thomas Emerson supports light rail in principle, but criticised the lack of transparency surrounding it.

“For such a significant project to be shrouded in secrecy [was] harmful to Canberrans, and also harmful to the government’s case for this project,” he said.

He called for a final business case to be published before any decisions were made about constructing further stages of light rail, warning that the documents showed wide variation in cost-benefit analyses over time, and that delayed disclosure “degrades public trust in our democratic institutions”. He noted that light rail was also a densification project, and called for an “honest public debate”.

Ryan Hemsley, chair of the Public Transport Association of Canberra (formerly the ACT Light Rail lobby group), said that the business cases must be understood in the broader context of the ACT’s evolving transport and land use strategy. Since the reports were drafted, the government had introduced “missing middle” housing reforms, committed to a hard urban growth boundary, and launched a new planning framework for the Southern Gateway corridor.

“Light Rail Stage 1 has also delivered six years of concrete, verifiable data on the real-world benefits of Canberra’s light rail network,” Mr Hemsley said. “We expect the updated project business case to … offer a robust, evidence-based foundation for extending Light Rail to Woden.”

Phillip Oval upgrades

The official opening of a sports pavilion marks the completion of Stage 1 of construction at the Phillip District Oval. It features female-friendly change rooms, a kiosk, and a sheltered community viewing area.

Sport and recreation minister Yvette Berry MLA said the upgrades represent a major investment in local sport and community wellbeing in the Woden Valley, and fulfil a 2020 pledge to support female participation in sport.

Further improvements will begin in July, pending budget availability.