I know Matt Canavan and I have played several games of touch football with him. He is a straight-talking bloke and a strong right-of-centre conviction politician. In my view, he will do well as the Nationals’ leader, as will his deputy Darren Chester.
There is a good chance, if they stick to time-honoured LNP values, that the coalition will at the very least claw back a lot of seats from this very ordinary federal government.
They will not, in my view, do it by going after One Nation. That would be akin to friendly fire.
The rise of One Nation is a response by ordinary, decent, hardworking Australians to a perceived crisis on the right of Australian politics caused by a loss of direction by largely the Liberal Party. I’ve said it many times: you can’t get anywhere by trying to be Labor lite. People will always vote for the real thing. You need to offer a clear and viable alternative to the ALP/Greens.
Pauline Hanson, love her or hate her, does this with passion.
One Nation is, and has been for some time now, ahead of the coalition in the opinion polls. I have said for some time now that whenever the LNP stands for election in House of Reps or Senate seats, and where preferences have to be allocated, a simple rule needs to be followed. The anti-Semitic/anti-Australia federal Greens need to be put last, and the ALP second last. Then, if Teals or like-minded left candidates are standing, put them third last.
If there are candidates from the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation standing, they should be put 1, 2 and 3 depending on the voter’s preference. There seem to be three main centre-right parties now, and to win government it is essential they preference each other as solidly as the Greens preference Labor (about 90%). I would also suggest to the LNP and One Nation that they look ahead to the need to go into a coalition arrangement if they can get to a stage where they can form a government.
Given the state of the world and the difficulties facing the federal government, mostly self-inflicted but some largely outside their control, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to see the 2028 House of Reps going something like this: 45 Liberals, 15 Nats, 16 One Nation and 2 or 3 independents (like Bob Katter) who are conservatives. A total of 78 or 79 seats – a majority of 3 or 4.
A Coalition government could well (and on that scenario) should be formed with a mix of Liberal, National, One Nation and maybe an independent minister. The preference swap needs to be well and truly publicised and drummed into the heads of One Nation supporters (who by about 30 to 35% tend to leak back to Labor) and to moderate Libs who might also be tempted to do something similar. They need to recognise that the ALP/Greens are the enemy.
It will be interesting to see how the rise of One Nation plays out, but I for one think some good things can come out of it – one thing being a greater likelihood of properly addressing, in a straight-talking, realistic way, the real problems facing Australia in an increasingly dangerous and uncertain world.
