Match day guide and preview for the 2022 AFL Grand Final between the Geelong Cats and Sydney Swans.

Match details

• Who: Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans
• When: Saturday 24 September, 2.30pm
• Where: MCG
• Weather: min 9, max 14. 30% chance of rain, 0 to 0.4 mm
• Head-to-head record since 1980: Played 74. Cats 44 wins. Swans 30 wins.

Grand Final Entertainment

• Pre-game: Robbie Williams and Delta Goodrem
• Half-time: Goanna, Christine Anu, Emma Donovan, Tasman Keith, William Barton,  Flip, Mike Brady, The Temper Trap featuring Budjerah and Ngaiire, and Katie Noonan.

Teams

Cats

IN:

OUT: Mark O’Connor (medi-sub)

Geelong have named an unchanged line-up with Max Holmes in the 22 despite suffering a minor hamstring injury last week. Their four emergencies are O’Connor, Brandon Parfitt, Sam Menegola and Jonathan Ceglar.

Swans

IN: Hayden McLean

OUT: Logan McDonald (omitted), Braeden Campbell (medi-sub)

Heartbreak for youngster McDonald who has been dropped in favour of McLean who will play his first AFL match since round 8. Sam Reid has been named despite suffering a slight groin strain last week. McDonald would likely come back into the side if Reid is unable to prove his fitness. Sydney’s emergencies are Campbell, McDonald, Harry Cunningham and Will Gould.

Click here for complete team line-ups.

2022 Finals summary

Geelong

Having won their last 13 regular season matches, the Cats came into the finals series as the red-hot premiership favourites and have certainly lived up to that hype so far.

They willed themselves over the line against a gallant Collingwood side in a Qualifying Final, with Max Holmes kicking a goal with just over a minute remaining to seal the six-point victory.

Geelong were trailing for much of that match and were even down by two goals during the last quarter, but it was Tom Atkins in the middle and Gary Rohan up forward that got the job done for them.

The Preliminary Final was a completely different story with Geelong’s class difference over the Lions on full display as they ran away with a 71-point win.

It was pure dominance right across the ground as the Cats stifled Brisbane’s ball movement at every opportunity before causing turnover after turnover and turning them into scores.

Despite some wayward kicking, Tom Hawkins finished with four goals, while Patrick Dangerfield set the tone all night, finishing with 28 touches and two goals.

While the Cats looked just about unstoppable against a poor Brisbane outfit, the Magpies showed they can be challenged if you bring intense pressure for the full four quarters.

Sydney

The Swans came into this finals series still under the radar for many pundits, but that all changed when they beat the reigning premiers in the first week of finals.

Sydney were the underdogs for their Qualifying Final against Melbourne at the MCG, but their manic pressure across the entire game saw them claim a 22-point win.

It was a really even performance for the Swans and even with stars like Buddy Franklin, Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney all quiet, they still found a way to get the job done.

Their Preliminary Final was one of the best games of footy played in recent memory, with the fast-starting Swans holding off a gutsy Collingwood side to win by just one-point.

The Swans looked incredible early on and managed to build a healthy 30-point lead at half time – 11.7 (73) to 7.1 (43) – with Collingwood’s accuracy in front of goals the only thing keeping them in the game.

As they have done so many times this season, the Pies just refused to quit and kicked the last three goals of the game to get within a kick, but it was too little too late as the Swans held on and the SCG erupted.

Tom Papley was brilliant up forward with three goals, while Callum Mills was instrumental throughout the game and came up with two match-saving moments in the final minute.

The Swans have proven that their best footy is good enough to beat anyone, and they should have absolute belief of claiming their first premiership since 2012.

Who to watch

The old bulls – Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) and Luke Parker (SYD)

It’s been a quiet year for Dangerfield but he wound back the clock in the Prelim with a vintage performance, racking up 28 touches, 8 clearances, 8 score involvements and two goals.

He’s still the Cats most dangerous weapon in the middle, so Sydney are likely to send either Callum Mills or Luke Parker to him at stoppages to attempt to minimise his influence.

Parker is a stalwart of this Sydney midfield and is putting together yet another remarkably consistent season in the red and white.

He’s carried his strong form into finals so far and was instrumental against Collingwood, helping to nullify Jordan De Goey, while also picking up 23 touches and booting the opening goal.

The veteran forwards – Tom Hawkins (GEE) and Lance Franklin (SYD)

Feels like these two have been kicking goals forever so it’s fitting to see them line up in a Grand Final against each other.

Hawkins was named the All-Australian captain after yet another terrific season for Geelong and remains an integral part of their dynamic forward group.

He could have easily kicked seven or eight goals against Brisbane if he kicked straight, but he just kept getting his hands on the ball and looked dangerous every time the ball went near him.

People were writing Buddy off after he was well beaten by Steven May in the Qualifying Final, but he bounced back with a terrific opening half against the Pies.

The Swans have a number of weapons in their forward line, but Franklin still shapes as the man most likely to kick a bag.

The young guns – Sam De Koning (GEE) and Chad Warner (SYD)

De Koning has done an incredible job as a young key defender playing on the best forwards in the game and is also supported by a terrific group of defenders at Geelong.

The 21-year-old is most likely going to get the huge task of lining up on Franklin, but he certainly has the ability to do a job on him.

Warner has enjoyed a breakout season for the Swans and has quickly become one of the most dynamic midfielders in the AFL.

His first half against Collingwood was special, using his blistering speed to have maximum impact, and the 21-year-old shapes as a potential game breaker for the Swans.

The small forwards – Tyson Stengle (GEE) and Tom Papley (SYD)

Stengle has had a brilliant debut season for the Cats, booting 49 goals across 24 matches and earning an All-Australian honour.

The Cats also have Gryan Miers and Brad Close as smalls that are in form, but Stengle appears the most likely to hit the scoreboard.

Papley is an incredibly dangerous member of this Swans team, using his explosiveness in centre clearances before pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard consistently.

He kicked three crucial goals last week and as the best celebrator in the AFL, the Swans would love to see him kick a bag.

Grand Final storylines

Legends do battle: 14 years after meeting in the 2008 Grand Final, champions Lance Franklin and Joel Selwood will meet once again to decide the premiers. Buddy will be looking to win his third premiership (and first since joining Sydney), while Selwood will be looking for flag number four and his first as skipper.

Magnificent McCartin: Paddy McCartin looked lost to the game after a series of concussions, but a second chance at Sydney and moving into defence has seen him play his best footy. Seeing the 26-year-old win a premiership alongside his brother would make it the best story in footy this year.

Danger’s legacy: Patrick Dangerfield is a champion of the game that has won a plethora of individual awards, but the one medal he wants more than any is a premiership medal. He was quiet in his only Grand Final appearance (2020) and would love to seal his legacy with a big time performance on the big stage.

The journeyman: Tom Hickey is the definition on an AFL journeyman, and now at his fourth club, the 31-year-old is playing in his first Grand Final. Joining the Swans last year, Hickey quickly became an integral part of the this team and that has continued so far in the finals. He was fantastic taking on Max Gawn and Luke Jackson in the first final before dominating early against the Pies.

Coaching greats: Chris Scott and John Longmire have been exceptional head coaches since taking over their clubs in 2011. Scott got a flag in his first season in charge, while Longmire had to wait until his second season to become a premiership coach. They’ve both kept their teams competitive throughout their tenures and have been close to another flag with the Cats losing the 2020 Grand Final, while Sydney lost deciders in 2014 and 2016. It’s rare that a coach wins a premiership 10 years or more after their first, but one of these great coaches will achieve that exact feat.

Last 5 meetings, MCG and recent finals history

• 2022 round 2: Swans 17.5 (107) defeat Cats 10.17 (77) at SCG
• 2021 round 7: Swans 14.6 (90) defeat Cats 12.16 (88) at SCG
• 2020 round 18: Swans 9.9 (63) lost to Cats 10.9 (69) at Metricon Stadium
• 2019 round 19: Swans 12.8 (80) lost to Cats 16.11 (107) at SCG
• 2019 round 11: Cats 13.7 (85) defeat Swans 8.15 (63) at GMHBA Stadium

The Cats have a slight 3-2 edge over Sydney over the last five, but there last contest was all the way back in round 2 so it’s hard to take much out of that.

That game had a tinge of destiny about it for the Swans, with Buddy confirming his legend status in the game by kicking his 1000th goal as the crowd charged onto the SCG.

Sydney have won the last two clashes against Geelong, but they’ve done so despite being beaten in some key stats.

The Swans felt in control for most of the 30-point win earlier this season, but the Cats actually had more scoring shots (27-22) and inside 50s (65-47).

It was a similar story in the 2021 clash, with Geelong having more scoring shots (28-20), inside 50s (65-39) and contested possessions (151-117), but losing up two points.

The sides have met just twice at the MCG in recent years, and both were in finals.

Geelong thumped Sydney in the most recent finals clash, claiming a 59-point win in a 2017 Semi Final, while the Swans beat Geelong by 37 points in a 2016 Preliminary Final.

The other final between these sides this century was the famous 2005 Semi Final when Nick Davis kicked four final quarter goals to put the Swans through to a Prelim and they eventually won the flag.

Since 2005, these two teams have played in five grand finals each, so it seems fitting that they finally play each other in a decider.

2022 AFL Grand Final predictions

Norm Warner: Swans youngster Chad Warner to win the Norm Smith, racking up 25 touches and booting two goals. Swans by 13

Close range: Brad Close to score two goals from the goal square.