The NRL is back for 2024 and the Canberra Raiders have a tough first up assignment as they head to Newcastle to take on the Knights in a rematch of last year’s thrilling elimination final.

Match details

• Who: Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders
• When: Thursday 7 March 8pm AEDT
• Where: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
• Weather: min 19 max 29, chance of rain 5%
• Click here to buy tickets
• Head-to-head record: Played 57. Raiders 29 wins. Knights 26 wins. 2 draws.

Team lists

The Raiders have been dealt a blow with captain Elliott Whitehead ruled out for 3-4 weeks due to a calf injury. Tapine will lead the side in his absence with Fogarty to remain as vice-captain. Offseason recruit Hosking has replaced Whitehead in the second row. Strange has won the race for the vacant five-eighth spot with Weekes named on the reserves list.

For the Knights, Hastings and Gamble remain the starting halves pair, with Penrith grand final hero Cogger named on the bench. Tuala gets the wing spot vacated by Dom Young.

2024 season outlook

2023: Raiders 8^th | 486 points for (13th) | 623 points against (12th) | 13W & 11L

The Raiders are heading into a rather interesting period with Ricky Stuart declaring the club was transitioning into a ‘new era’ over the offseason.

With Jarrod Croker and Jack Wighton moving on at the end of last year and Whitehead, Rapana and Papali’i all in the twilight of their careers, the club is looking to build its next roster that can compete for a premiership.

Despite playing finals footy the last two years, the Raiders have been a long way off genuinely contending for the title, but the emergence of some young talent makes the next few years an exciting proposition for Canberra fans.

As for how the 2024 season will go for the Raiders, who the hell knows? The squad isn’t too dissimilar from last year with Wighton the most notable loss, although he was below his best in 2023. Smithies and Hosking are the two most notable additions and should add instant impact.

The spine appears the glaring weakness on paper, with a lack of quality and uncertainty on positions a concern. The club doesn’t have a specialist fullback that is ready to go, no experienced five-eighth option and no clear number one hooker. Fogarty, as the halfback, is the only clear-cut selection in the spine, bearing even more responsibility on his shoulders this year. 19-year-old Strange appears to be the club’s long term number 6 and was impressive both. Rapana will do the job at fullback and gives the club some more time to develop 18-year-old Chevy Stewart who is set to to be club’s long-term fullback.

Canberra has an underrated crop of youthful outside backs with some depth, so there should be good competition for spots throughout the year. Timoko is the one with the most potential and is likely the club’s biggest weapon in attack given how tough he is to stop one-on-one. Seb Kris is expected to return to the centres after his suspension ends, a position that should suit him better. After a difficult 2023 season, it’s great to see Savage named on the wing. He could prove a real threat for Canberra with his pace and his ball carrying looked much stronger in the trials.

The Raiders are stacked with talent in the middle forwards, leading to a few unlucky players missing out on selection each week. Hosking could prove a very handy pickup given Whitehead’s injury, while Sasagi looked solid in the trials playing in the second row. Trey Mooney will be an interesting watch this year. Out of contract at the end of the year, the 21-year-old looks ready for regular NRL footy, but unfortunately finds himself behind a brick wall of middles.

Overall, it’s hard to see this Raiders squad challenging the top teams once again in 2024, but they do still have the squad to compete for a finals spot. There are even some ‘experts’ predicting Canberra to claim the wooden spoon. That seems a tad harsh given the Raiders have made finals in four of the last five years and teams like the Dragons and Tigers exist. Being written off might actually work in favor of this competitive group. If there’s any coach capable of leading them back into the finals, it’s Sticky.

2023: Newcastle Knights 5^th | 626 points for | 451 points against | 16 wins, 9 losses & 1 draw

The Knights looked destined for a dismal 2023 halfway through the season, but they found their mojo and were one of the best teams in the back half of the year.

They managed to finish fifth and won that tense final over Canberra in front of a raucous home crowd. The gruelling nature of that match took it out Newcastle and they were then belted by the Warriors over in New Zealand to finish their season.

The biggest difference between Newcastle’s first and second half of the season was Ponga staying healthy and his shift back to fullback. He was arguably the best player in the NRL after he moved back into the 1 jersey and even managed to take home the Dally M Medal.

Ponga will once again be the key for the Knights in 2024, but the club also has plenty of depth in their other spine positions. Jack Cogger joins the club fresh off a stellar performance in Penrith’s incredible grand final comeback win last year and while he’s been named on the bench for round one, he could force his way into the starting 13 soon enough. Will Pryce is another option for the five-eighth role, with the young Englishman impressing in the trials. The luckless Jayden Brailey will miss the start of the season through injury, but if he can get back and remain fit, he should be a handy addition to the hooker role alongside Phoenix Crossland who blossomed in the 9 role last year.

In the outside backs, the loss of Dom Young will hurt after his outstanding 2023. They still have some quality though with Bradman Best ready to explode, while Dane Gagai, Greg Marzhew and Enari Tuala are all solid.

The Knights also have a strong group of forwards led by the Saifiti brothers and the emergence of Leo Thompson. Tyson Frizell and Adam Elliott add some experience to the pack, while Dylan Lucas looks a handy player in the back row.

Outside of a disappointing to 2022 when they finished 14th, the Knights have played finals in three of the last four seasons. They seem to be building nicely and Newcastle would be disappointed with anything less than another top 8 finish, or even top 4 if they can start the year well.

Last 5 meetings and history in Newcastle

• 2023 elimination final: Knights 30 – 28 Raiders at McDonald Jones Stadium
• 2023 round 22: Raiders 6 – 28 Knights at GIO Stadium, Canberra
• 2023 round 4: Knights 24 – 14 Raiders at McDonald Jones Stadium
• 2022 round 23: Knights 22 – 28 Raiders at McDonald Jones Stadium
• 2022 round 15: Raiders 20 – 18 Knights at GIO Stadium

The Knights have enjoyed a good recent record over Canberra, winning six of the last eight contests, including all three meetings last year.

The first clash last year saw Canberra leading 14-6 at half-time, until they imploded in the second half with the Knights scoring three tries in the first ten minutes after the break.

Newcastle completely dominated the second clash in Canberra, while the third contest was an epic elimination final contest that could’ve gone either way.

Even when the Knights were struggling a few years ago, they seemed to compete really well against Canberra so Newcastle should be confident coming up against the Raiders.

Of the last ten meetings between the sides played in Newcastle, the Knights won five, the Raiders have won four and there was a draw back in 2016.

Pre match predictions

Doctor Strange: Ethan Strange to provide the remedy for Canberra’s halves woes, notching a try assist and a line break. Raiders by 6.

X marks the spot: Xavier Savage to look at home on the wing with a try, line break and 100+ run metres. Raiders by 2 – Denholm Samaras

Have any predictions of your own? Let us know in the comments below.

Other match details

Gates open at 5.15pm

NSW Cup – Knights vs Raiders at 5.30pm.

The match will be broadcast live on Channel 9, Fox League channel 502 and is also available to stream on Kayo. Overseas fans can watch via Watch NRL.

You can listen to the match on Raiders on Mix (Mix106.3 FM), Radio 2CC (1206 AM) and ABC Grandstand (666).