In 99 days, on Saturday 19 October, Canberrans will vote. Will they re-elect ACT Labor and the ACT Greens? Will they opt for a Canberra Liberals government for the first time in more than 20 years? Will it be a hung parliament? Will any independents get in?

Chief Minister Andrew Barr (ACT Labor) believes majority government is unlikely; that has only happened once in the ACT’s history (the victory of his Labor predecessor Jon Stanhope, in 2004).

“What matters here is how many seats each major party wins in the Assembly, and then what happens on the crossbench,” Mr Barr said. “That is impacted by primary votes and by preferences.

“Under the Hare-Clark electoral system, you have proportional representation. This means that in order to win a majority of seats, you often need to win a majority of the primary vote, and you certainly need to win a majority after preferences. So in this election, like every other, there’ll be fierce competition between the major parties and between minor parties and independents to fill seats on the crossbench.”

Nevertheless, Labor hopes to gain more seats: it will look to defend the 10 seats it holds now (two in each of the five electorates), then add more, Mr Barr said.

Labor’s 25 candidates have knocked on 40,000 doors so far: “Lots of deep engagement with voters from Tuggeranong to Gungahlin, Belconnen to the inner south, Woden, Weston Creek, Molonglo,” Mr Barr said.

Labor claims that it “has a progressive, practical and proven plan to deliver on what matters. To keep the Canberra you love – and to make it even better.” Labor says it would strengthen public healthcare, build more affordable homes, and deliver real cost-of-living relief.

Canberrans are clear they want the government to focus on health, housing, cost-of-living, and infrastructure, Mr Barr said.

“And we are focusing on those issues. We responded with those priorities in the budget. It will remain to be seen whether that satisfies everyone or a majority of the community.”

(Many Canberra organisations, from community services to education, from business to construction, were disappointed by the Budget.)

More detail on transport and health policies is below. Labor candidates will outline further policy detail at a campaign launch; and will form policies for the coming parliamentary term at an annual conference later this month.

ACT Greens

The ACT Greens, too, have been out in the community, discussing their policies, and party leader Shane Rattenbury says constituents have responded well.

“The Greens are really going into this election committed to putting a vision on the table for Canberrans, outlining practical policies that can really address some of the big challenges the community knows we’re facing,” Mr Rattenbury said.

Mr Rattenbury maintains that the ACT Greens are the party of choice for those seeking progressive policies. The Greens have emphasised building a better normal and a fresher, more inclusive, greener Canberra. Their election policies include more housing (10,000 public homes over the next decade) and four bulk-billing health clinics.

“People are responding to these ideas, and it gives us confidence that we have been listening, we have got the right ideas, and that hopefully they’ll get behind them come election day,” Mr Rattenbury said.

“This election is actually about the community; it’s about the community voting for the changes they want to see. If people do want to see the new ideas, then they’ve got to vote for it.”

Canberra Liberals

The Canberra Liberals say they have a “vision for a fresh opportunity for Canberra”. Party leader Elizabeth Lee has expressed her commitment to listening and governing in the best interests of the community, particularly those Canberrans facing cost-of-living pressures, and to provide essential services (health, housing, education, roads) the Liberals claim the government has neglected.

“We have spent the last four years talking to the community and listening to their concerns, and we are looking forward to sharing more of our plan to make Canberra even better,” Ms Lee said.

“We know that many Canberrans are doing it tough, and the Canberra Liberals will deliver real and tangible measures to help relieve the cost-of-living burden. We will also deliver a fairer, more transparent rates policy that will leave Canberra households almost $2,000 better off in the first term of a Canberra Liberals Government.

“After 23 years, many Canberrans know that this Labor-Greens government no longer serves the community.

“This October, we have the chance to vote for a fresh opportunity for Canberra and a new approach to our government.

“Over the next 100 days, we will continue to announce our policies and commitments to deliver that fresh opportunity.”

Transport

Labor is the only party with an holistic transport policy, Mr Barr maintains, taking in light rail, buses, active transport, and road infrastructure: “One that balances all of the competing needs for investment, and is not narrowly focused like the other parties tend to.”

In his opinion, the Canberra Liberals oppose investment in public transport, while the Greens oppose investment in roads.

The Canberra Liberals’ “People-focused public transport” policy, announced in April, commits to restore the bus network they claim the government has neglected, “getting Canberrans where they want to go, when they want to”, while being faster and more affordable than light rail.

The Liberals oppose light rail, which they believe the city cannot afford: they estimate it would cost more than $5 billion over the next decade, saddling future generations with an enormous debt and taking money away from other sectors.

Shane Rattenbury, on the other hand, maintains that light rail has been incredibly successful. (He would; light rail was his price for supporting Labor in the 2012 election.)

“It’s a little hard to believe that the Canberrans are still prosecuting their argument against light rail,” Mr Rattenbury said. “Stage 1 [Gungahlin to Civic] has proven to be so effective and so popular.”

The Liberals acknowledge this; shadow transport minister Mark Parton has said stage 1 “solved a genuine transport public transport problem”, whereas stage 2 “just creates one”.

“A bus-only solution … would be caught in the same congestion,” Mr Rattenbury said. “We need to provide a good alternative. Light rail is a quantum shift in terms of quality of service and also delivering different outcomes. It’s about having a whole solution, not part of a solution. And the Canberra Liberals are simply focused on one part.”

Health

Labor’s health policies are broader than other parties’, Mr Barr claims: they would support health both in community settings and in acute settings like hospitals.

“We are the party that built hospitals in this city. The Liberal party’s history, over 35 years of self-government, is to implode the hospital; they’ve never built any health infrastructure for our city.”

Which is a glib remark; given the Liberals have only held government for eight of those 35 years, and Labor has been in power for the last 23 years, the Liberals have had no chance to build any health infrastructure.

They have, however, raised concerns about delays to the Canberra Hospital expansion (which will open next month) and to the construction of a new northside hospital, both planned in 2011 to be open by 2021/22, as well as about failing health services.

Independents for Canberra

But perhaps Canberrans will vote for none of the major parties, and instead opt for independent candidates.

Certainly, Thomas Emerson, co-founder of Independents for Canberra, believes that many Canberrans are not satisfied with the Labor-Greens government, but do not see the Canberra Liberals as a viable alternative.

The movement, launched in January, and inspired by the success of Senator David Pocock and the Teals, believes the public should be represented by other members of the community: “MLAs who are there for us, and aren’t beholden to vested interests or party politics,” their website states. Their members promise to serve as a cross-bench, and hold the government to account.

“We’ve been out door knocking and chatting with Canberrans at the local shops, and we’re meeting so many people who are excited to see independents running because they just don’t trust the major parties to put our community’s interests ahead of their own political interests,” Mr Emerson said.  

“The independent movement is changing the face of politics across the country. 100 days out from the election, the sense we’re getting from our community is that people want to see an independent wave crash into the Assembly this October.

“People want more action and accountability from our representatives. 

“The Canberrans I’m speaking with believe in a fairer society where high-quality healthcare, education and housing are available to everyone, not just to those who can afford it. It’s time to start living up to that promise. 

“The ACT is falling behind other jurisdictions in so many key areas. Something needs to change in order for that to change.

“We’re hearing that people want leaders with a positive vision for the future of our city.”

Strong Independents

Similarly, the Strong Independents – Peter Strong AM and Ann Bray AM – are running in Kurrajong – Barr, Rattenbury and Lee’s own seat.

The Strong Independents believe that ACT Labor has become lazy and complacent, and lost its way, while the Liberal party is not yet ready to hold government, because the right wing still holds sway. They promise professional transparent government administration, and to meet the needs of the majority of Canberrans, and those doing it tough.

“It’s 100 days till the most important election since we became a Territory,” Mr Strong said. “The people of Kurrajong have the three leaders representing them. The leaders of Labor, the Greens, and the Libs. Send them a message that things have to change. Vote for the Strong Independents – Ann Bray and Peter Strong. Then we will have a cross bench that will ensure transparency and evidence-based decisions.”

Mr Barr, however, warned that a vote for an independent could be a vote for the Canberra Liberals.

“When the Liberals have formed government in the past in the ACT, it’s been off the back of independents who have not been clear about who they would support in the vote for Chief Minister… The choice ultimately will be between a Labor government or a Liberal government. The question that needs to be asked of independent crossbench candidates is: Who would you support in that circumstance?”

Asked on Reddit what party he would support, Independents for Canberra candidate David Pollard replied: “I’m not interested in supporting any of the major parties. I’m interested in supporting good, evidence-based policies, regardless of where they come from. All three parties have work to do.”