Irreversible, catastrophic climate change is nigh, according to a UN report published this week. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has pinned his hopes on technology, but local Labor and Green politicians are calling for the government to move to reduce greenhouse gas emissions now.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth report, published on Monday, warns that even under the best-case scenario, global warming will be at least 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels within 20 years, probably by the early 2030s; and that many climate change consequences are irreversible.
“The latest IPCC report on climate change is terrifying,” ACT Greens leader Shane Rattenbury said. “It shows the world is heating faster than scientists previously thought, and sea levels are rising faster in Australia than the rest of the world. The world is now hotter than it has been in at least 125,000 years.”
In Australia, land temperatures are already around 1.4℃ warmer since 1910. Weather extremes such as fires, floods, droughts, cyclones, and coral bleaching have increased and intensified; disasters such as the 2019–20 Black Summer fires are set to become even more familiar as climate change accelerates, the IPCC warned.
But immediate, rapid, drastic and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions can slow and even stop worse-case outcomes, said IPCC vice-chair and Australian National University Climate Change Institute director, Mark Howden. Without such action, the world cannot hope to limit warming to close to 1.5℃ or even 2℃.
The Prime Minister insisted technology will solve climate change.
“World history teaches one thing – technology changes everything,” he said. “That is the game changer.”
The PM said he did not want to burden regional areas and the agricultural sector with the cost of climate action.
He also acknowledged those same people were most affected by the consequences of climate change.
“We need to address those anxieties and assure people in regional parts of the country that the plan we have to achieve these outcomes … is a plan that they can support,” Mr Morrison said.
With other nations expected to lift their ambition on emissions cuts, Mr Morrison faces pressure to bring additional climate commitments to the table at UN talks scheduled for November in Glasgow.
“We will make that very clear about what Australia is achieving and what we intend to achieve. And we’ll make further statements about that between now and that (Glasgow) summit.”
The Prime Minister reiterated commitments to investing in low-emissions technologies and pointed out Australia was set to achieve a 29 per cent reduction in emissions on 2005 levels by 2030. This was compared with a cut of between 26 and 28 per cent under Australia’s Paris Agreement commitment.
Mr Morrison said it was a fair argument for developing countries to question why countries like Australia secured economic growth underpinned by fossil fuels.
“We are taking action that I think will actually make the difference,” he said. “We need the technological changes that will transform the global energy economy of the world.”
The Morrison government has not committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in response to the report, and maintains this target is a preference.
Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said the government wants to reach net zero as soon as possible and preferably within that timeframe.
Australia is projected to cut emissions 29 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, compared with its Paris Agreement target of between 26 and 28 per cent.
ACT Labor politicians criticise government
Federal Labor Senator Katy Gallagher and MPs Dr Andrew Leigh, Alicia Payne, and David Smith said the government must commit to net zero by 2050 at a bare minimum.
The Climate Change Performance Index ranked Australia 54th out of 61 countries, and the Sustainable Development Report placed Australia last out of 193 countries on climate policy and projections, Mr Smith noted.
“This IPCC report is yet more evidence of the costs of eight years of inaction by a government still divided on the basic science of climate change.”
“Scott Morrison must have missed … all of the scientific evidence over the past 30 years,” Senator Gallagher stated. “This is a climate crisis. We need to take real action on climate change immediately.”
“The Morrison government needs to pull their heads out of the sand and treat this like the emergency it is,” Ms Payne said. “Enough of the empty rhetoric, the future of the planet depends on what we do now.”
“This is a ‘code red’ for humanity,” Dr Leigh agreed. “Australia can’t squib it.”
Professor Howden said Australia’s reductions to date had been assisted by lower land clearing levels and mechanisms put in place under Labor.
“Looking at the core fossil fuel-based sectors, the emissions from those have actually gone up within that period, and at the moment they’re pretty much flatlining,” Professor Howden said.
“There’s no real evidence that our current policy settings are actually working to drive down our emissions.”
ACT Greens response
The ACT Greens say the report must be a powerful wake-up call to both major parties.
“Canberrans I speak to are desperate for leadership on the climate crisis,” said Tim Hollo, Greens candidate for the seat of Canberra and 20-year veteran climate campaigner. “They see the Coalition as out-and-out climate criminals, and they see right through Labor’s hypocritical hedging.”
Although opposition leader Anthony Albanese has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, Labor said in April it still supported coal mining expansion and export of thermal and metallurgical coal for decades to come – apparently to win votes in coal mining communities like the NSW Hunter Valley and regional Queensland.
“The science could not be clearer – you cannot claim to be serious about the climate crisis while still backing fossil fuels,” Mr Hollo said. “It is dangerous nonsense for both major parties to try to have this planet and heat it, too.”
The Australian Greens are within achievable swings of winning several House of Representative seats at the upcoming federal election, including the seat of Canberra, according to ACT Greens spokesperson Clancy Barnard. When the Greens held the balance of power in 2010, they secured $13 billion invested in renewable energy and pushed emissions down for the first and only time in Australian history, he said.
ACT Greens leader Shane Rattenbury said his party had a target of cutting emissions by 50-60 per cent by 2025. They had already cut local emissions by 40 per cent and switched to 100 per cent renewable electricity; next, they would phase out gas, and support a shift to electric vehicles.
“It has become irrelevant whether Scott Morrison will finally commit to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. We don’t have 30 years to play political games. We need a firm plan to get out of coal and gas, cut emissions, and deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Anything less is a reckless denial of reality.”
Epochal climate change
“The climate system is in a state that it has not been for at least centuries to millennia and changing at a rate unprecedented at least for the last 2,000 years,” Australian scientist and IPCC report author Blair Trewin warned.
The worst of five scenarios modelled by the IPCC shows 1.6℃ of warming within 20 years and a planet that’s likely 4.4℃ hotter by the end of the century.
The best-case scenario modelled is line with 1.6℃ of warming between 2041 and 2060. Under this trajectory, warming would then dip back below 1.5℃ by the century’s end.
Other scenarios have the planet on track for between 1.8℃ and 3.6℃ of warming by 2081 and 2100.
Carbon dioxide concentrations are their highest in at least two million years, while sea levels are rising at the fastest rate in at least 3,000 years.
Already, sea levels have risen 20cm, and could increase between 30cm and a metre or more by 2100. Arctic sea ice is at the lowest level in at least 1,000 years.
Globally, each additional half degree of warming will cause more frequent and intense extreme heat, drought, and extreme rainfall.
At 2℃, heat extremes will reach tolerance thresholds for agriculture and human health more frequently.
Globally, current commitments are not consistent with keeping global temperatures to 1.5℃ or even below 2℃.
– AAP
For more news:
