Match day guide and preview for the 2022 AFL Qualifying Final between the Melbourne Demons and Sydney Swans.

Match details

• Who: Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans
• When: Friday 2 September, 7.50pm
• Where: MCG
• Click here to buy tickets
• Head-to-head record since 1980: Played 69. Swans 42 wins. Demons 25 wins. 2 draws.

Teams

Demons

IN: Christian Salem

OUT: Jake Bowey (omitted), James Jordon (medi-sub)

Salem returns from injury with Bowey the one to make way.

Swans

IN:

OUT: Sam Wicks (medi-sub)

The Swans are a settled side and have made no changes for the third match in a row.

Click here for complete team line-ups.

Season recap and form heading into finals

Melbourne Demons 2^nd – 130.5% | 1936 points for (6th) | 1483 points against (1st) | 16 wins 6 losses | WWLWL

The Demons had a blistering start to their premiership defence, winning the first ten games of the season and were the clear premiership favourites.

Melbourne then lost three in a row and finished the season winning just six of their last twelve matches as the Cats overtook them as the best team in the league.

If you break it down, the Dees only played two teams that finished in the top eight during their opening ten match winning streak (Richmond – 7th, Bulldogs – 8th), before playing nine finals teams in their last 12 games where they went 3-6.

The finals came early for Melbourne as they went into the last round needing to beat the Lions at the Gabba to finish in the top four and they were simply brilliant.

The Dees jumped out of the blocks to have the game just about wrapped up at quarter time and they gained enough percentage to leapfrog Sydney into second place.

While the Demons haven’t been as dominant as some predicted early in the season, their best is still good enough to win the premiership and they showed last year that they can step up on the biggest stage.

Sydney Swans 3^rd – 127.9% | 2067 points for (4th) | 1616 points against (4th) | 16 wins 6 losses | WWWWW

The Swans finished off the home and away season with seven straight wins to clinch a top four spot and a double chance.

Throughout the opening two thirds of the season, Sydney struggled to string four quarters together and even though they were winning games, they weren’t overly convincing in doing so.

Their place in the eight was looking shaky after a round 16 loss to Essendon, but the upset defeat seemed to sting them into action and they have outstanding since.

Sydney’s biggest game of the season came in round 22 against the Magpies at a sold out SCG and they looked the better side all day, showing they can more than match it against other top four sides.

Some people feel like the Swans are tracking ahead of schedule given their young talent, but they have a terrific blend of youth and experience in this side that makes them a genuine threat right now.

Last 5 meetings and MCG history

• 2022 round 12: Demons 9.7 (61) lost to Swans 10.13 (73) at MCG
• 2021 round 8: Demons 10.7 (67) defeated Swans 8.10 (58) at MCG
• 2020 round 15: Swans 10.7 (67) defeated Demons 6.10 (46) at Cazaly’s Stadium Cairns
• 2019 round 22: Demons 5.12 (42) lost to Swans 15.5 (95) at MCG
• 2019 round 4: Swans 11.12 (78) lost to Demons 15.10 (100) at SCG

The Swans have won three of the past five clashes, including a tight 12-point victory at the MCG earlier this season.

Melbourne got out to a fast start in that contest, but the Swans kept grinding away and kicked the last four goals of the game to seal an upset victory.

Max Gawn was freakishly good for the Demons with 30 hitouts, 28 disposals, 9 marks, 5 clearances and he even pushed forward and kicked three goals. For the Swans, Logan McDonald and Sam Reid kicked three goals each, while Callum Mills was strong in the midfield with 26 disposals, 10 tackles and 6 clearances.

Sydney should head to the MCG with confidence having won seven of their last eight clashes against the Demons at the venue.

They have met ten times at the MCG since 2010, Sydney lead the count 7-2 with a draw in 2011.

The teams have not met in the finals since a 1987 Semi Final where the Dees thumped Sydney 21.23 (149) to 10.13 (73) at the MCG.

Key matchups

Steven May vs Buddy Franklin

Fans should be excited to see these two stars line up against each other after they both missed the clash earlier this season.

Both have had terrific seasons, with May named All-Australian for the second year running, while Franklin has kicked 50 goals in 20 matches at just 35-years-young.

May put the clamps on Buddy when they played last year, keeping him goalless and restricting him to just 6 touches while having 15 himself, so it will be interesting to see what the Swans do with Franklin. They may be better off using him as somewhat of a decoy and trying to isolate one of their other forwards if they get a more favourable matchup.

These two stars love the big stage and a Friday night final at the MCG should bring out the best in both of them.

Max Gawn vs Tom Hickey

Big Max played one of the great individual games against the Swans earlier this season going up against Peter Ladhams.

Gawn mixed his time between the ruck and forward perfectly and will likely do the same with Luke Jackson moving into the middle a bit more recently.

After battling injuries throughout the year, Hickey has worked himself into some good form over the last few matches and should give the Swans more of a contest than Ladhams did against Gawn. Sydney will call upon the reliable Sam Reid to go against Jackson in the middle and he is more than capable of holding his own.

Both sides can be lethal out of centre clearances, so the ruck contest could be crucial in the deciding the outcome.

Pre match predictions

Gawn with the win: Max Gawn to kick the match winning goal late in the game.

Logan Lucky: Logan McDonald to kick three goals in his finals debut.

Send in the Brown: Ben Brown to be the difference in an evenly matched contest with three goals. Dees by 6. – Denholm Samaras

Have any pre match predictions of your own? Let us know in the comments below.

Get the latest Canberra news, sport, entertainment, lifestyle, competitions and more delivered straight to your inbox with the Canberra Daily Daily Newsletter. Sign up here.