โChina will do what China will do.โ That is the assessment of Laborโs Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister Penny Wong. Wong, at the weekend, was responding to the mounting crisis in Hong Kong and the prospect of a heavy-handed intervention by Beijing.
She was also giving context to the failure of Australia to impress the 17 states and micro states of the Pacific who attended last weekโs Pacific Islands Forum in Tuvalu. Also prominently in attendance and โunderstandingโ the Island nationsโ sense of impending doom over climate change was China.
Wong, like her former colleague and prime minister Kevin Rudd โ now a foreign affairs specialist at the prestigious Asia Society Policy Institute in New York โ says China will make every effort to exert its influence in our region and the world: โthatโs what major powers doโ.
The Morrison Government is well aware of this reality and is desperately trying to consolidate Australiaโs position as โpartner of choiceโ. It repurposed $500 million of already committed aid to climate change mitigation โ sand bags and the like โ at the forum. Forum host Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga and his counterparts were unconvinced, even if grateful for the generosity. But he said โno matter how much money you put on the table, it doesnโt give you the excuse to not do the right thingโ. The right thing, as far as the inundated island states are concerned, is a stronger commitment from Canberra to reduce our emissions, to be more serious about phasing out coal and not to use accounting tricks to achieve our reduction targets.
Morrisonโs arguments that China pollutes more than Australia and that we account for just 1.3% of the worldโs emissions failed to convince. It did so for the simple reason that if the other 100 nations emitting about the same level, like the United Kingdom for example, used the same argument, no one would do anything.
Pacific leaders were pushing for a strong statement on climate action so that the region could take it to the United Nations climate summit in September. They are anxious to apply pressure for international action to avoid what they and the worldโs scientists see as the planet rushing headlong to catastrophe.
For 12 hours Australia refused to sign up. It would not accept the description of โclimate crisisโ. Nauruโs President was reduced to tears of frustration. Fijiโs Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama tweeted: โwe came together in a nation that risks disappearing to the seas, but unfortunately, we settled for the status quo in our communiquรฉ.โ
On any level this is a failure of Australiaโs diplomacy, our PMโs arguments weakened by no plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Morrison says he will come up with one next year, but if the past 10 years are any guide, thereโs not much room for optimism.
Thereโs also not much chance we can play a useful role in Hong Kong. Australiaโs diplomacy has lost credibility with Beijing. Nuance is not something we do well.
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