Australia are expected to finish fifth on the medal table at the Paris Games.
The United States start as favourites to win the most medals with China unlikely to overtake the US in the overall haul, but they do stand a chance to win more gold than the Americans.
Though the Games highlight great individual athletes, it is also a surrogate for geopolitcal influence and national pride.
The United States are projected to win 112 medals overall – 39 gold, 32 silver and 41 bronze. China are forecast to win 86 overall – 34 gold, 27 silver and 25 bronze.
After the US and China, the next in line with overall totals and gold totals are: Britain (63-17), France (60-27), Australia (54-15), Japan (47-13), Italy (46-11), Germany (35-11), Netherlands (34-16) and South Korea (26-9).
The next places 11 to 20 are: Canada (21-7), Hungary (20-7), Brazil (18-8), Spain (18-5), Poland (17-3), Denmark (14-5), Turkey (14-4), New Zealand (14-4), Ukraine (13-2), Ethiopia (12-6).
The forecast is by Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which supplies statistical analysis for sports leagues around the world. It also tracks major competitions involving Olympic sports leading up to the Games.
The US and China finished 1-2 in both categories in 2021 in the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics.
The International Olympic Committee does not compile medal rankings. Gracenote has calculated its standings on overall medals won, although others focus the rankings on gold totals.
The forecast for the Americans on top is no surprise. This would be the eighth consecutive time the US has won the most overall medals at the Summer Games. The Unified team topped the overall count in 1992 at Barcelona, composed of athletes from the former Soviet Union just after it broke up as a sovereign state.
The last Summer Olympics in which the US did not top the gold-medal table was in 2008 in Beijing.
Countries always get a medal bump being the host nation, and France are expected to almost triple their number of gold medals won in Tokyo.
This time the medals will be inlaid with a tiny piece of the Eiffel Tower.
Host nations spend more heavily for a home Olympics, and the home crowds also help with athletes competing in familiar surroundings.
Conversely, Japan won a record 58 overall medals three years ago in Tokyo, and 27 gold. They are tipped to slip this time.
The unknown factor is the presence of Russian and – to a lesser extent – Belarusian athletes. They have been absent from most international competitions over the last two years because of the war in Ukraine. And, by order of the IOC, any medals those athletes win are not to be included in any medal table.
More than 300 Russian athletes competed three years ago in Tokyo. This time the total may be just a dozen or so.
