Light rail stage 2A, from Civic to Commonwealth Park, supposedly the ‘cheaper’ stage, will cost $1.46 billion, the Canberra Liberals estimate – significantly higher than initial estimates, and an “astronomical” figure for 1.7 km of track, almost $1 million per metre, opposition leader Elizabeth Lee says.

Stage 2B, Commonwealth Park to Woden, further and more complex, would be even more expensive; the Liberals estimate it will cost more than $4 billion.

“This government’s not been transparent on the full cost of stage 2A of the tram,” shadow transport minister Mark Parton said.

“If this is what this first half, the cheaper half, of the project is going to cost, can you imagine where we’re going to end up with stage 2B? This is just going to be an economic disaster.”

The ACT Government was asked to comment this morning.

The sum is based on Chief Minister Andrew Barr’s responses last week to questions on notice, and on figures in the ACT 2023­–24 Budget Review:

• Early planning and design (2019–21) for light rail stage 2: $52.189 million
• Delivery phase costs: $265.385 million
• Capital expenses: $576.8 million
• Maintenance / operation costs: $168.2 million
• Interest expenses: $124.5 million
• Acquisition of additional light rail vehicles, retrofitting the existing fleet to enable wire-free operations, expanding the dépôt: $149.684 million
• Raising London Circuit: $129.783 million

Total: $1,466,261,000 (or $1.46 billion)

That figure is 2.5 times as much as the $577 million major works contract the ACT Government signed in December for light rail stage 2A, and 5.5 times as much as the 2019 estimate that stage 2A would cost $268 million (with a net cost of $138 million).

To put it another way, it translates, Mr Parton said, to every single residential homeowner not paying rates for two years.

Moreover, were it not for stage 2A, the government would not need to buy more rolling stock, upgrade the dépôt, retrofit vehicles, or raise London Circuit, Mr Parton claimed.

“We are being taken for a ride here. It’s a very expensive ride, and it’s a very long ride. Again, does anyone believe that we’re getting to Woden by 2033? Because I don’t.”

The federal government will pay $288.5 million – half of the $577 million major works contract. But that, Mr Parton calculates, is only 20 per cent of the $1.5 billion.

“Any suggestion that the federal government is paying half of [stage 2A] is a complete fantasy,” Mr Parton said.

“If indeed [the ACT Government] were to somehow convince the Federal Labor government to go 50 per cent on stage 2B, that would suck up every available dollar of Commonwealth spend on everything in the ACT. And so all of the other things that are actually needed would fall by the wayside.”

The Canberra Liberals warn that light rail would increase the ACT’s debt – and Canberrans’ taxes. Debt is already predicted to be more than $18 billion in the forward estimates, costing the ACT almost $2 million a day in interest repayments alone, Ms Lee said.

“Andrew Barr has already flagged increasing own source revenue to contribute to the cost of this project,” Ms Lee said. “He must be upfront with Canberrans about how much he will be slugging them in extra taxes and charges whilst many are facing a cost-of-living crisis.”

The Canberra Liberals will complete stage 2A, should they win this year’s election.

“I think it’ll be too late for us to stop,” Mr Parton said. “We won’t be tearing up contracts…

“Whatever happens, we’re pushing ahead and we’re going to Commonwealth Park.”

But they will go no further.

“Once we get to Commonwealth Park, there’s no possible way that we can justify pushing forward with this,” Mr Parton said. “ACT Labor knows full well that the rest of the project doesn’t stack up, and if they could get out of it, they would.”

Besides the cost, light rail is inefficient; it takes more than 30 minutes, whereas buses between Civic and Woden take 15 minutes, Mr Parton said.

The Canberra Liberals will release their transport policy soon. It will, Mr Parton said, “get more Canberrans to where they want to get to, when thy want to get there, a hell of a lot cheaper than what this mob are doing”.

Electric buses will play a major rôle, Mr Parton hinted. “We will electrify the fleet much quicker than [ACT Labor and the ACT Greens] will, because we’re not spending $4 or $5 or $6 billion on a tram.”