17.3 per cent more Australians died in the first seven months of 2022 than the historical average, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Provisional Mortality Statistics, published last month. Similarly, the average number of deaths in the ACT for the first half of this year seemingly increased by 20.2 per cent, compared to the baseline average.

Across Australia, 111,008 people died between 1 January and 31 July – 16,375 (17.3 per cent) more than the historical (baseline) average.

In July, 17,936 people died, 2,503 (16.2 per cent) above the historical average. 1,310 of those deaths were due to COVID-19, doctors certified; there were 300 fewer deaths due to COVID-19 in August.

Also in July, there were significant increases in deaths from cancer (+1,611), dementia (+1,661), and diabetes (+572).

In the ACT, 1,647 people died between January and July, 277 more than the baseline average total of 1,370 deaths.

(Based on Table 2.1, Provisional Monthly Statistics, Monthly Dashboard, Jan – Jul 2022)

ACT Health attributes the increase in numbers to an increasing and ageing population, and argues that age-standardised mortality rates are a more appropriate indicator to monitor changes over time than comparisons to the baseline average.

Some, like former United Australia Party MP Craig Kelly, have claimed that excess deaths were due to adverse effects of the mass COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

“In the first seven months of the year, we’ve had 16,375 excess deaths – without explanation,” Kelly, national director of the UAP, wrote on his Telegram account.

“The numbers demonstrate that our politicians lied when they claimed they were ‘keeping us safe’.”

LNP Senator Matt Canavan has also linked excess mortality to vaccine deaths.

But the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), which approves and regulates COVID-19 vaccines in Australia, states that in the vast majority of cases, vaccines are not the cause of death.

The TGA told the ABC that it was “false and unscientific to automatically conclude that vaccines caused these deaths… There is no credible evidence to suggest that COVID-19 vaccines have contributed to excess deaths in Australia or overseas.”

According to the TGA’s report of 20 October, 63.8 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been given in Australia since the beginning of the vaccine rollout to 16 October 2022; the TGA has identified 14 deaths (from 939 reports received and reviewed) linked to vaccination.

Thirteen of these deaths occurred after the first dose of Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca): eight were associated with thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (blood clots and low levels of blood platelets); two were linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome (a rare disorder in which the body’s immune system attacks the nerves); two were related to very rare conditions involving the nervous system; and one was a case of immune thrombocytopenia (excessive bruising and bleeding, due to low blood platelets), the TGA reported. One death followed after a booster dose of the Spikevax vaccine, and was related to myocarditis (inflammation of the heart).

No deaths in children or adolescents have been determined to be linked to COVID-19 vaccination, the TGA stated.

“Vaccines can lead to death in extremely rare instances,” the TGA said. “However, most deaths that occur after vaccination are not caused by the vaccine. In large populations in which a new vaccine is given, there are people with underlying diseases who may die from these diseases. When a vaccine is given in that same population, the link between the vaccine and death is usually coincidental – not caused by the vaccine. These deaths are carefully reviewed for whether vaccines could be the cause, and for the vast majority that is not the case.”

The RMIT has stated that there is “no credible” evidence vaccines are to blame for higher-than-average deaths in 2022; roughly half of these deaths were due to COVID itself.

The Australian Actuaries Institute and a researcher at Melbourne University’s School of Population and Global Health also stated that the ABS data did not show any information that attributed deaths to vaccines or not, the ABC reported.

Death and statistics

The ABS report compares counts of deaths for 2021 to an average number of deaths recorded over the five years from 2015-2019, and data for 2022 to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected.

“Average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of whether mortality is higher or lower than expected in a given year,” the ABS states.

The ABS notes that while the report can indicate whether counts of deaths are above or below expectations, it does not provide official estimates of excess mortality.

“Using the number of deaths from the previous years as the predictor for the expected number of deaths does not take into account changes in population size and age-structures of that population, as well as expected improvements in mortality rates over time.”

ACT Health attributes the increase in numbers to an increasing and ageing population. A spokesperson stated that age-standardised mortality rates are a more appropriate indicator to monitor changes over time.

“Counts are less useful in this instance as the Australian and ACT populations are growing in size and getting older,” a spokesperson said. “The age standardised rates should be used to determine if there was an actual increase over time, as cancer, dementia, and diabetes are more prevalent in older people.”

The age-standardised mortality rate for Australia decreased between 2012 (554 per 100,000 people) and 2021 (507 per 100,000 people), ACT Health stated. The ACT’s age-standardised mortality rate has decreased over time; it fell from 479 per 100,000 in 2020 to 464 per 100,000 people in 2021. Rates for 2022 are not yet available.

The ACT age-standardised rates for dementia and cancer both decreased from 2020 to 2021. In 2020, 29.3 per 100,000 people died from dementia; in 2021, 27.2 per 100,000 people died. Cancer rates fell from 142.5 per 100,000 people in 2020 to 134.5 per 100,000 people in 2021.

The age-standardised rate for diabetes increased, however, from 11.2 per 100,000 people in 2020 to 13.8 per 100,000 people in 2021.

Nationwide, deaths due to dementia including Alzheimer’s disease were 12.9 per cent above the baseline average in July, and 19.8 per cent above the baseline average for the year to July. This equated to an age-standardised death rate of 4.2 per 100,000 people, compared to a baseline average rate of 4.0.

Deaths due to diabetes were 24 per cent above average in July (569 deaths), and were 21.3 per cent higher than the baseline average for the year to July (459 deaths). The age standardised death rate for June was 1.6 per 100,000 people, compared to a baseline average rate of 1.4.

The number of deaths due to cancer (4,265) was above the baseline average in July (4,136), but the age standardised rate of 12.4 per 100,000 people was below the baseline average rate of 13.0.

There were 301 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in July, 16.4 per cent below the baseline average. 54 deaths were due to influenza (compared to a baseline average of 65), and 247 were due to pneumonia (compared to a baseline average of 295).

There were 252 doctor certified deaths due to influenza between January and July 2022, 32.6 per cent above the baseline average.

Deaths due to chronic lower respiratory diseases (804 deaths) were 1.6 per cent above the baseline average for July (791 deaths), and deaths due to respiratory diseases were average (1,482 deaths). Chronic lower respiratory diseases and influenza and pneumonia are subsets of respiratory diseases. 

ACT Health said the community should not be concerned by the increase in deaths; however, the age standardised mortality rates should continue to be monitored over time.