The NRL’s lopsided season in years has spun out the most congested battle for the finals in almost a decade, with only three teams out of legitimate contention.
With just three rounds to play in the regular season, seven sides still remain a genuine mathematical chance of claiming the last two spots in the finals.
Only one win separates eighth from 13th – with Gold Coast just two points ahead of Wests Tigers.
It’s the first time since 2013 that 13th has been this close to the finals this late in the season, and only the third time since the introduction of the eight-team finals in 1995.
Such has been the dominance of the NRL’s six-team breakaway pack, it’s likely a record of 10-14 could be enough to qualify for the finals.
That in itself would be the worst record of any finalist in history, and a far cry from the 15-9 cut off in 2019.
But it does make for an exciting final three rounds, with as many as 17 of 24 games to have some bearing on positions seventh and eighth.
Newcastle are the best placed of those in seventh, on 22 points to be two clear of the chasing pack and with three games against teams below them on the ladder.
The Knights have last-placed Canterbury this weekend, and a win over the Titans the week after would likely be enough to secure their finals spot.
Below them, teams ninth through 13th desperately need a Gold Coast side missing AJ Brimson to drop two of their remaining three home-and-away games.
The Titans face Melbourne on Thursday night, and after the Knights clash in round 24 they meet the Warriors on the final day of the regular season.
Canberra could capitalise if the Titans fall, but a round-24 game between the Raiders and the Warriors will likely rule one of them out of contention.
The Raiders take on Manly in a crunch match this Friday night with Charnze-Nicoll-Klokstad named to return from a neck injury.
Cronulla are the other dark horses, with games against the Tigers, Brisbane and a Storm side that is likely to rest several of their stars in the final rounds.
St George Illawarra’s hopes could be gone as soon as Sunday if they lose to the Sydney Roosters, while the Tigers need wins over Cronulla, Penrith and Canterbury.
“You’re never out of the fight,” Tigers fullback Moses Mbye said.
“I always compare it to when I was at Canterbury 2014, we ended up finishing seventh and ticked away and made our way up to the grand final.”
NRL RUN HOME
7. NEWCASTLE (22, -137) v Canterbury, Gold Coast, Brisbane
8. GOLD COAST (20, -32) v Melbourne, Newcastle, Warriors
9. CANBERRA (20, -84) v Manly, Warriors, Sydney Roosters
10. CRONULLA (18, -62) v Wests Tigers, Brisbane, Melbourne
11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (18, -108) v Sydney Roosters, North Queensland, South Sydney
12. WARRIORS (18, -113) v Brisbane, Canberra, Gold Coast
13. WESTS TIGERS (18, -132) v Cronulla, Penrith, Canterbury
AAP
