NSW has reported 1220 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 and eight deaths, taking the number of infections in the current outbreak past 30,000.

The entire state is locked down and police are cracking down on compliance measures as authorities battle to suppress the spread of the virulent Delta strain.

Of the eight deaths in the 24 hours to 8pm on Monday, one man was in his 50s, one man in his 60s, three people in their 70s, one man in his 80s and two men in their 90s.

There are more than 1150 COVID-19 patients in NSW in hospital, with 192 people in intensive care beds and 75 people ventilated.

Almost three-quarters of NSW residents aged 16 and over have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose.

“Don’t be left behind when we start opening up … when we open up at 70 per cent double dose, it will be only for those who are vaccinated,” Premier Gladys Berejiklian told reporters on Tuesday.

It comes after modelling from the Burnet Institute shows hospitalisations in NSW will peak in October before intensive care capacity is placed under the greatest strain in early November.

However, authorities don’t believe ICU occupancy will reach anywhere close to NSW’s surge capacity of 1550 patients, even if patients may need to attend hospitals far from home.

The modelling for NSW Health suggests case numbers will continue to increase until mid-September in COVID-19 hotspots, reaching up to 2000 cases per day.

The flow-on effect of those case numbers on hospitals and ICUs will follow, with up to 3900 patients expected to need hospital admission. 

By the time of the greatest stress in late October, three in five ICU patients could have COVID-19.

The estimated peak of patients in ICU is 947, of whom 560 would be COVID-19 patients and 387 have other ailments. 

At that point, some ICU patients will be treated in other spaces like operating theatres. Doctors and healthcare workers will be caring for a larger number of patients than usual.

Some critically ill patients, who would be in intensive care were it not for the pandemic, will be treated outside intensive care units.

The Australian Paramedics Association says the government also needs to employ more paramedics and staff in the emergency departments to deal with the looming crisis.

AAP

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