New analysis from ANU shows just two in 10 female 2022 Federal Election candidates from major parties are contesting winnable seats.

The ANU Global Institute for Women’s Leadership (GIWL) analysis examined how many Labor and Coalition female candidates are up for election in safe seats, compared to unwinnable or marginal seats.

Across 151 electorates in the House of Representatives, the study found 20 per cent of female candidates in the Coalition were contesting winnable seats, while 46 per cent of male Coalition candidates were running in winnable seats.

Female candidates from the Labor Party contesting winnable seats sits at 24 per cent, compared to 33 per cent for their male counterparts.

Professor Michelle Ryan, director of GIWL, said the analysis shows “Australia has a long way to go to achieving gender equity in politics”.

“As major political parties make up the vast majority of MPs in the House of Representatives, increasing the number of female candidates they put forward at each election is important in ensuring our Parliament represents the diversity of the community,” Professor Ryan said.

“What is equally important is making sure that these female candidates are running in seats they can reasonably be expected to win.

“We’ve found that not only are there fewer women contesting seats in this election overall – they’re also less likely to win. This is a big loss for our democracy and for Australia.”

One of the leaders of the data analysis, Ms Emma Summerhayes, said, “We know quotas work to get more women into politics”.

“Our analysis shows us why it’s not just about how many women are preselected as candidates, but how many are put into positions where they genuinely can win.”

The concept of the “glass cliff” is a phenomenon developed by Professor Ryan in her previous research, where “women are appointed to leadership positions in times of crisis or when their position is precarious”.

“The 2022 federal election is a classic glass cliff moment,” Professor Ryan said. 

“While political parties are publicising their efforts to increase the number of women candidates they put forward, we need to look at whether these candidates are simply stepping into seats that males aren’t interested in, or if they will genuinely increase the diversity of our Parliament.

“On this analysis, it would seem that, sadly, diversity isn’t the driving motivation.”

The analysis comes off the back of the latest ANUpoll, which reported that Australian voters are more likely to vote for women than men.

The 3,500 person-wide survey found 52.8 per cent of voters would be “very likely to vote for women” while 43.4 per cent of voters said they’d be more likely to vote for a male candidate.

The ANU Global Institute for Women’s Leadership analysis is available to read online.

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