Canberrans can begin casting their ballots from today for the election on Saturday 19 October at 11 early voting places. (Details at Elections ACT.)

One of the first people in the ACT to vote was current Chief Minister Andrew Barr … for himself, of course.

“I’m really pleased to have passed a vote for a practical and progressive plan to make the Canberra we love even better,” Mr Barr said.

ACT Labor is running on a platform of health, housing, cost-of-living, and infrastructure. Canberra’s population will soon reach half a million people, and now, Mr Barr says, is the time to invest in the health system, build new schools and TAFE facilities, and increase housing from 200,000 to 230,000 over the next six years.

“What sort of government do Canberrans want to see?” Mr Barr said. “If you want to keep Canberra progressive and keep a progressive government in place, then voting one-to-five Labor is the best way to do that.”

But how many others will follow suit? Will Labor secure its seventh consecutive term of government and reign for 27 years? Or will other parties overthrow Labor’s political dominion?

Candidates’ predictions

“Labor and the Greens will have a loud and clear protest vote against them,” predicts Peter Strong AM (Strong Independents). “There is a lot of emotion out there about what a failure the government has become. Certainly a lot of emotive disappointment with Andrew Barr.”

Foretelling the outcome of the election is hard, Mr Strong says, but his educated guess is a minority government: 11 ACT Labor, nine Canberra Liberals, and a couple of ACT Greens. The independents would have the deciding vote: probably Fiona Carrick (“I really hope so”), running in Murrumbidgee, and two or three Independents for Canberra.

Bill Stefaniak (Belco Party) sees a desire for change of government, but he is not sure it is strong enough to translate into enough votes to shift power.

“My gut feeling is it’s close, but not close enough to change the government,” he said.

In a “worst-case” scenario, Mr Stefaniak foresees a balanced Assembly with 10 Liberals, 10 Labor, two Greens, and three independents. In a “best-case” scenario, he sees 11 or 12 Liberals, 10 Labor, one Green, and two or three independents (such as Jason Taylor from the Belco Party, Fiona Carrick, Tom Emerson, or Mark Richardson).

“The last scenario would likely change the government, the other ones maybe not,” Mr Stefaniak said. “It depends on how independents such as Fiona Carrick and Tom Emerson would vote should they get elected.”

Mr Stefaniak anticipates that Labor would likely “cobble together enough newly elected members” to retain government, but he hopes he is wrong. Many public sector workers, he says, mistakenly believe that their jobs depend on the current government staying in power.

Ms Carrick expects the outcome of the election to be an Assembly that includes independents for the first time in 23 years.

Independents for Canberra leader Thomas Emerson said that the community wants to see an independent crossbench holding the government to account. (They released their Statement of Expectations today.)

“What we’re hearing from people is that people haven’t felt they’ve had an alternative. They’ve been either voting Labor-Greens for a long time; it feels like you’re voting for the same party when you vote for either of them – and not really appealing being compelled by the opposition. So we’re out there offering a viable alternative and saying, ‘Look, if you do want to vote for an independent voice, someone who could represent you in your community, then there’s an option in every electorate.’”

Like Labor, both the Canberra Liberals and the ACT Greens are confident.

Canberra Liberals

“The mood out on the ground has been very positive, and Canberrans are ready to vote for a fresh opportunity under a Canberra Liberals Government,” opposition leader Elizabeth Lee said.

The Canberra Liberals’ “bold and ambitious” plan, Ms Lee says, “addresses long-term neglect by Labor and the Greens” in health, housing, education, community safety, and basic maintenance, as well as infrastructure projects that “will provide the most economic, social and cultural benefit to the ACT”.

“While the Canberra Liberals have been putting forward a fresh vision for the future of Canberra, Andrew Barr has embarked on a negative fear campaign because he has run out of ideas and run out of energy,” Ms Lee said.

“Canberrans expect and deserve a campaign on positive ideas for Canberra. Sadly, all they have received from Andrew Barr is a politically lazy, immature fear campaign that belongs in student politics.”

ACT Greens

The ACT Greens, party leader Shane Rattenbury says, are “offering a progressive alternative for people who don’t want the Liberals, but can see that we need to do things differently”.

“We need significantly more public housing in Canberra to create an affordable alternative to the private rental market, because we know housing costs are the single biggest cost of living pressure being felt across the community.

“We need more free healthcare, so people don’t have to choose between going to the doctor or putting food on the table, and can get help much earlier to stay healthy and well.

“We need much better public transport, and more homes and services in central areas, so people aren’t locked into the expense of having a car.

“The Greens have got more governing experience than the Liberals, and we’ve got more courage and ambition than Labor when it comes to tackling the housing crisis, the climate crisis and the cost of living.”

Bill Stefaniak, however, reckons that the Greens are “certainly in trouble” in Brindabella, Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi, and he expects the party’s deputy leader, Rebecca Vassarotti, to lose her seat in Kurrajong.

“I hope the Greens are decimated so that only Shane Rattenbury is left – but again, that may well be unlikely due to naïve younger voters and rusted on, older, well-off teal-type Green voters,” Mr Stefaniak said.

“Green policies such as raising the age of criminal responsibility, decriminalising hard drugs, not supporting our police, not supporting increasing number of police, and engaging in disastrous kangaroo culls – and the hypocrisy inherent in these policies – don’t seem to trouble these kinds of voters who live in a comfortable little bubble untroubled by such things as cost-of-living pressures the punters in outer areas like Belconnen, Gungahlin and Tuggeranong encounter every day – not to mention crime, uncut grass, potholes, a failing health system and an education system not fit for purpose which have been the hallmarks of the Green /Labor government.”

Peter Strong is sceptical of all three major parties. “When the Chief Minister and Labor attacked the independents claiming we were all Liberals, then I had the chance to look more closely at the ACT ALP; and they are a party scared of strong independent women like Ann Bray. It shows their fear is real and impedes their views. They need time out to take a refresh.

“The Greens also need to look at which unions they support, as the CFMEU (the Greens’ Union) is hardly a poster child of the union movement, and mainly consists of big boofy blokes. I’d rather the various health unions and the education union were higher on the pecking order than the CFMEU. Disappointing, to say the least.

“The Libs still have major problems with support for their leader. All in all, this says we need true independent MLAs.”

When will they vote?

Mr Barr might have voted early, but other lead candidates (including Ms Lee and Mr Rattenbury) will vote on polling day, 19 October.

“I just love the vibe,” Mr Rattenbury says. Nevertheless: “Early voting is convenient and incredibly popular in the ACT. We know lots of people are struggling to make ends meet, so early voting can be that opportunity to have a say, even when you’re working multiple jobs, doing shift work or juggling work and study or caring responsibilities.”

Over the next two weeks, Mr Rattenbury and other Greens candidates will be out near pre-poll locations for anyone who wants to have a chat about what this election can mean for the ACT.

“We’re getting great feedback when we’re out doorknocking and chatting to people at the local shops,” Mr Rattenbury said. “People really get that important change is possible – if you vote for it.”

Ms Carrick will vote at Melrose High School, while Mr Strong will vote at his school, to help raise funds.

As the president of a school P&C, so will Belco Taylor co-convenor Jason Taylor. “I believe that anyone who can vote on election day should,” Mr Taylor said. “Activities (in particular democracy sausages) are the lifeblood of school P&C’s that host a polling place – and local residents should support their local school if they can (even if they don’t have kids attend).”

ACT Labor will continue campaigning until the close of polls at 6pm on 19 October. Mr Barr expects that two-thirds of the population will have voted by then, but 100,000 votes or more will be cast on the last day.

“There will be a number of people who won’t yet have made up their mind, not only where their first preference is going, but then where each subsequent preferences are going,” Mr Barr said. “In each electorate, the voting instructions say vote at least one to five. So preferences will be crucial to determine the outcome of many seats in the Assembly.”

“Preference flows are absolutely vital,” Mr Emerson agrees. Last election, he noted, Mr Barr was the only candidate elected on first preference votes.

Labor: no more major announcements

Labor will make no major billion-dollar type announcements, Mr Barr said, but will continue to submit policy costings, which he says no other party has done.

“We’ll see this afternoon whether either the Liberals or the Greens have submitted anything,” Mr Barr said. “But if they don’t submit by Friday, the chances, unless it’s a very simple submission, of getting a cost back before everyone’s voted, would appear to be quite slim.”

Questioned whether Labor has costed its 800 new healthcare workers, announced in May, a spokesperson said the positions would be progressively recruited and funded in annual Budgets from 2024–2028. Throughout the campaign, Labor has outlined health commitments that contribute to that plan, including building the Northside Hospital. The first positions were funded in the 2024-25 ACT Budget, including minimum nurse/midwife-to-patient ratios. Labor has also submitted costings for nurses in schools, medical imaging services in Belconnen, and expanding midwifery-led continuity of care.

On the campaign trail: Belco Party

Jason Taylor (Belco Paty) says the campaign has largely been very enjoyable.

“A lot of my former role in policing was about talking to people, and most of the campaigning has involved this,” Mr Taylor said. “Most of the feedback has been positive, with a lot of people from all sides of the political spectrum indicating that they will be voting for candidates who aren’t from the three major parties here in the ACT. Hopefully this is reflected at the ballot box and the Belco Party can be part of a strong and effective cross-bench in the next Assembly!

“It’s important that people remember that they control their own vote and where it goes, not any parties or individual candidates. If you think somebody on the ballot paper would make a good local representative, put a number in their box. Conversely, if you don’t want somebody as a representative, don’t put a number in their box. 

“We are suggesting that people consider putting the Liberal candidates in Yerrabi and Ginninderra after us and then any independent/minor party candidate they like the look of after that. But leave the labor and greens boxes BLANK.”

“All I can say is that we are getting a good response on the ground, but how that translates to votes at the ballot box is anyone’s guess,” Mr Stefaniak said. “It has been a shame that a lot of the media only go to Independents for Canberra when they want a comment from anyone other than the three major parties. There are other parties, and the Belco party is running in two electorates with good candidates. Hopefully enough people have seen us and heard of us and like what we have to say to give us a go. If they do, they will not be disappointed! I note the 2CC morning show host (Stephen Cenatiempo) said he’d like to see Alan Tutt and Jason Taylor get elected in Ginninderra and Yerrabi respectively – which would be a great result if it happened.”

Fiona Carrick: ‘Going very well’

Fiona Carrick says her campaign is “going very well”. She is running with Marea Fatseas and Bruce Paine.

“We have great candidates, sensible policy positions and the best volunteers in Canberra,” Ms Carrick said. “We are building momentum at the right time with less than two weeks to go.

“If Fiona Carrick Independent Party gets a seat in the Murrumbidgee electorate, we will be very happy, and we will work with other MLAs for better outcomes.

“It is important for the community to have a local representative that will bring forward issues for the community without being tied to party politics.”

Strong Independents: ‘As well as can be expected’

The Strong Independents’ campaign is going “as well as can be expected”, Peter Strong said. “We receive very good feedback from the great majority of people we meet and, when allowed to participate in forums, we have received very positive responses. 

“There were community groups who ignored other ‘free range’ independents and only had the IFC at their forums – which, of course, was great for the IFC, but stifled the voice of true independents such as Fiona Carrick and Ann [Bray] and I.”

Nevertheless, Mr Strong is confident that he and Ms Bray will pick up votes. After they attend election forums, he said, their website hits spike quite a lot; they have had more than 7,000 website hits over the last two months.

“The draw that saw us pick up the last spot on the ballot paper didn’t help – but such is the roll of the dice. But, as we all know, Hare-Clark is difficult to predict.”