Are we going to see a change of government in the ACT after 19 October? We need to, as the ALP has been in power for 23 years, the last 12 of which have been in a rock-solid coalition with the Greens.

The ACT once had the best education and health system in the country – not so now. We have a huge debt bill and are repaying over $2,000,000 a day just on interest repayments. We have wasted a fortune on a tram that only 7.5 per cent of our population uses, and which the government threatens to now extend to Woden at a cost of possibly $10 billion. The age of criminal responsibility is being raised to 14, but the Greens are proposing allowing 14-year-olds to decide without parental consent to change their sex. Criminal drug groups from Sydney are now starting to reap the benefits of decriminalising hard drugs, and the Greens don’t seem to mind the regular cull (some would say slaughter) of kangaroos.

Despite all this, it will still be a hard job changing the government. Why is this so? There are still too many people benefiting from well-paid government jobs which enable them to live well, despite the local government making life very hard for many others not so fortunate.

There are 10 ALP and six Green MLAs. It will be very hard for Labor to lose a seat. They have two in each electorate, and only need about 30 per cent of the vote to hold those seats. Similarly, in the central electorate, Shane Rattenbury will be returned (more wealthy voters benefiting from government jobs, plus academics and students).

All the government needs is for three of the Greens to get back, and bingo! The same old, same old continues.

The Liberals have nine seats. Whilst suffering from a cleverly encouraged perception that they are not a viable alternative, they have several things going for them. 1: They actually have some good MLAs who would make reasonable Ministers. 2: They have some good candidates with real life experience. And 3: Whilst Canberra is a Labor town federally, if the Labor federal government is not doing well, the local Liberal vote increases. How do you think the local Libs got in in 1995? It wasn’t just Kate Carnell’s pretty face – it was Paul Keating being on the nose, too. So, they should keep their seats and pick up one (quite possibly through star police candidate Mick Kalatzis in Kurrajong). Indeed, it is quite possible they could pick up a seat in either Murrumbidgee, Tuggeranong or Yerrabi.

It is quite possible an independent could toss the Green member in Yerrabi, Ginninderra, Tuggeranong and Murrumbidgee as well. There is also an outside chance we could get a “plague on both your houses” election, and we end up with Shane Rattenbury and eight Labor, eight Libs and eight independents, which might even offer the possibility of an independent becoming Chief Minister. Now that would be interesting, albeit unlikely.