Australia’s vaccination rates went backwards throughout June, with the “magic number” now 221,359 jabs in arms every day from today onwards – nearly double current rates – to get the Federal Budget’s vaccination and border targets back on track, according to C-suite strategy consultants Provocate.
Provocate’s latest VaxEnomicTM Forecaster for business shows that would deliver a total of 48.1 million shots by the end of 2021 covering 85 per cent population coverage with two doses – the same level of herd immunity being worked towards in the US and UK respectively.
However, Provocate can reveal Australia’s vaccination rate averaged just 113,000 jabs in arms per day in June after failing to reclaim the heights experienced during Victorian lockdown three weeks straight.
This has left the country over 4 million jabs behind the 12.4 million vaccinations Australia needed to have administered at this point in the rollout to meet the Federal Budget’s end of 2021 target, just seven weeks after it was extended from an October 2021 completion.
And with limited stock due over the next three months, Australia will therefore likely need to average at least 300,000 vaccinations every single day from 1 October 2021 to catch up – triple current rates.
Provocate Managing Director said the more “realistic” scenario was Australia’s vaccine rollout completing somewhere closer to March 2022 – and international travel reopening September 2022 in turn – based on the six month buffer between the two in the Federal Budget book.
Mr Bilsborough – a former senior adviser to the Federal Health & Aged Care Minister – also raised concerns for the Federal Budget debt targets, which were predicated on also avoiding extended local lockdowns, not just completing the vaccine rollout by the end of 2021.
“The constant political volatility upending Australia’s vaccine rollout risks gaslighting the very businesses governments are relying on to drive the country’s economic recovery out of Covid19,” Mr Bilsborough said.
“Our closest allies in the US and UK have already set the bar at 85 per cent herd immunity, so Australia can’t afford a ‘magic number’ any lower if it wants to maintain business, public and political confidence.
“Australia’s time would be better spent picking up the phone and going cap in hand to our closest allies who see Australia as strategically important in APAC to get as many spare vaccine doses as we can now.
“The fact President Biden is donating 500 million vaccines to other countries and Australia walked away from the G7 without a single dose as one of the US’s closet allies should be of major concern.
“Australia’s Budget bottom line can’t afford another three months of this political volatility while the economy waits fingers crossed to see if more Pfizer or Modern turnup en masse as promised.
“The political impacts on business confidence are only going to get worse now the 12-month Federal Election guessing game is officially underway as of July 1.”
Britain recently announced 85 per cent of its adult population had received at least one Covid-19 jab, while US officials upgraded its herd immunity expectations from 60-70 per cent to 85 per cent earlier this year.
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