ACT election: Results and reactions so far

ACT Labor has claimed its seventh consecutive term in government, beginning an unbroken stretch of 27 years in power.

Party leader Andrew Barr said: “We’re the only party in a position to form a government that could be stable and progressive for Canberra. I don’t think the Canberra Liberals are seeing a pathway to form a government.”

At time of publication, the count is ongoing. Based on first preferences (77.2 per cent of the votes), Labor remains the leading party (34.5 per cent of the overall vote), but has seen a significant swing (3.3 per cent) against it.

The Canberra Liberals trail with 8 confirmed seats, but are expected to reach 10 (a gain of two, now Elizabeth Kikkert has left the party) once final preferences are distributed. The Liberals have received 33.1 per cent of the vote so far (a 0.7 per cent swing against them).

Opposition leader Elizabeth Lee conceded defeat in a speech on Saturday night, but a Liberals spokesman has said that “if the final make-up of the Assembly is not a combined 13 Labor-Green, then all options remain on the table”.

For the first time since 1998, independents have been elected to the Assembly: Thomas Emerson (Kurrajong), representing Independents for Canberra, and Fiona Carrick (Murrumbidgee). Independents for Canberra received 8.5 per cent of the territory-wide vote.

The ACT Greens have lost two of their sitting members: ministers Rebecca Vassarotti and Emma Davidson. The party received 12.4 per cent of the vote (a 1.1 per cent swing against them), and is currently confirmed to hold only two seats, although may keep a third.

Because many Green seats “sit right on the margins”, a 1 per cent drop “had a significant impact”, Greens leader Shane Rattenbury said. He considers the loss of the seats to be a move for the independents, not a vote against the Greens. The two lost seats were those gained by independents.

“There was clearly a desire for change in some parts of the community,” Mr Rattenbury said. “Whilst the Greens pitched a program of change from within, that’s clearly not quite what the community was looking for.”

If the Greens end up holding three seats, Mr Barr said, the only pathway to forming government (13 seats) involves an arrangement with the Greens.

Brindabella

Canberra Liberals: 43.0% (+4.6% swing) – quotas: 2.6
ACT Labor: 34.1 % (-6.6% swing) – quotas: 2.0
ACT Greens: 9.1% (-1.7% swing) – quotas: 0.5
Independents for Canberra: 7.5% – quotas: 0.5

The Liberals have made gains in Brindabella, but Labor, however, has suffered a substantial decline.

“We acknowledge a small swing against us, and there’s some lessons in that,” Mr Barr said. “But most people were predicting swings much bigger against Labor, and that didn’t eventuate.”

Caitlin Tough and Taimus Werner-Gibbings (who has stood for election before) have been newly elected as Labor MLAs, and Deborah Morris for the Canberra Liberals.

Mr Barr said he and the new Labor MLAs would “work closely together to support this community’s … economic, social, and cultural growth, and ensuring that we would get more housing in Tuggeranong so the population can grow”.

Mark Parton (Liberals) achieved the second-highest quota in the ACT (1). James Daniels (Liberals) is in a competitive race, with the possibility of losing to either a third Labor or a Greens candidate, according to ABC chief election analyst Antony Green.

Ginninderra

ACT Labor: 37.6% (-2.4% swing) – quotas: 2.3
Canberra Liberals: 25.8% (-0.9% swing) – quotas: 1.5
ACT Greens: 14.5% (+2.0% swing) – quota: 0.9
Independents for Canberra: 7.5% – quota: 0.4

Labor leads in Ginninderra despite a slight decline, while the Greens have seen an increase, reaching close to a quota. The Liberals have experienced a modest dip.

Chiaka Barry has been elected as a new Liberals MLA. Returning MLAs include Yvette Berry and Tara Cheyne for Labor, Peter Cain for the Liberals, and Jo Clay for the Greens. Ms Clay’s re-election makes Ginninderra a second safe seat for the Greens, Shane Rattenbury said.

Kurrajong

ACT Labor: 36.6% (-1.4% swing) – quotas: 2.2
Canberra Liberals: 23.5% (-4% swing) – quotas: 1.4
ACT Greens: 17.9% (-5.1% swing) – quotas: 1.1
Independents for Canberra: 13.7% – quota: 0.8

Andrew Barr achieved the highest quota in the ACT (1.3). There were significant swings against both the Liberals and the Greens. Returning MLAs include Rachel Stephen-Smith (Labor); Elizabeth Lee (Liberals); and Shane Rattenbury (Greens). Thomas Emerson has been elected as an Independent for Canberra.

“This has been a remarkable effort from our community,” Mr Emerson said. “A wide range of people from different walks of life, mostly of non-political backgrounds, came together to prove a new approach was possible. I would have loved to be walking into the Assembly with a few more of our fantastic candidates, and hope this result can establish a platform for next time. For now, I hope to do everything possible to repay our team’s efforts, and our community’s belief in this movement, over the next four years.

“We will push the government hard on the things that matter to Canberrans. Housing, health, education – these are things that we should all have access to, rather than being reserved only for those who can afford it. Let’s adopt a longer-term view of what we want for Canberra and take bold steps now to move ourselves in that direction.

“I look forward to collaborating with all sides of politics, adopting good ideas and discarding bad ones, to achieve better outcomes for our community.

“There are still votes to be counted and preferences to be distributed. I am hopeful for David Pollard in Yerrabi, who has an outside chance. He deserves the win. I look forward to seeing the final result and moving forward once we know exactly where we stand.”

Murrumbidgee

Canberra Liberals: 34.3% (-1.2% swing) – quotas: 2.1
ACT Labor: 33.7% (-2.4% swing) – quotas: 2
Fiona Carrick: 13% – quota: 0.8
ACT Greens: 9.6% (-2.2% swing) – quota: 0.6
Independents for Canberra: 5% – quota: 0.3

The Liberals have a slight lead over Labor, with both major parties closely matched. Jeremy Hanson (Liberals), Dr Marisa Paterson, and Chris Steel (Labor) are returning MLAs. Independent candidate Fiona Carrick has been elected. Amardeep Singh or returning candidate Ed Cocks (both Liberals) may secure the next seat, according to Mr Green.

Yerrabi

Liberals: 36.5% (-4.1%) – quotas: 2.2
Labor: 30.9% (-3.2% swing) – quotas: 1.9
Greens: 11.9% (+1.7% swing) – quota: 0.7
Independents for Canberra: 9.7% – quota: 0.6

The Liberals hold the lead, but have faced a swing against them. Labor is trailing but still close. The Greens have made gains, while the Independents for Canberra are also relatively strong. Re-elected MLAs include Leanne Castley and James Milligan (Liberals), Michael Pettersson and Suzanne Orr (Labor), and Andrew Braddock (Greens), despite competition from Independent for Canberra David Pollard.

Next steps

Mr Barr said Labor would seek to have a productive arrangement with the independents and Greens around supply (budget) and confidence (backing to govern) matters.

“Thomas and Fiona would want to play a productive rôle in the Assembly,” Mr Barr said. “They’ve been very clear about that, to not be obstructionist, to support good policy. If you look at Labor’s policy agenda, and some of the areas that they have highlighted in their campaigns, I think there is certainly a workable alignment there.”

Jeremy Hanson is reportedly considering making a play for leadership of the Canberra Liberals.

Mr Barr commented: “Jeremy doesn’t hide his ambition in that regard, and it was very clear that the relationship between he and Elizabeth Lee had broken down completely over the last year of the parliamentary term.”

Ms Lee sent Mr Hanson to the backbench in a shadow cabinet reshuffle last year.

“Jeremy’s run before; he is at the conservative end of the Canberra Liberals,” Mr Barr said. “But, look, if that’s the direction they take, they’re probably learning the wrong lesson from the campaign. But for them, ideological purity appears to trump everything else.”

Greens leader Shane Rattenbury said he would sit down and talk to party members for their views on forming government again with Labor.

“Clearly, we need to examine how do we effectively tell our story to the community in a way that highlights the achievements we’ve been able to make in government, whilst recognising that, at the moment, many of those achievements are somewhat invisible to the community, but the negative consequences of being in government have clearly landed with us to some extent – and that is a point of frustration for us…

“We were open in the campaign about expressing our frustration at Labor’s intransigence [and] their caution on some issues. We were very clear in putting a case that we needed bolder changes in areas, that tweaking around the edges was not enough. But that message has not cut through. We now need to see how the Labor party is prepared to play this out as well, in terms of how we address some of these issues that are very real in our community, very substantial for the constituents, and yet we’re seeing incremental change from the Labor party.”

The Canberra Liberals and Fiona Carrick have been asked for comment.

Other parties

The Animal Justice Party ACT received 1.3 per cent of the vote (a 0.4 swing against). Candidate Robyn Soxsmith said: “Of course the Animal Justice Party would have welcomed one or more of its candidates as an MLA. Nevertheless, the AJP is disappointed by the overall result.

“As a political party founded on kindness, equality, rationality and non-violence, we are dismayed that ACT voters somehow think Labor and the Greens are in any way progressive. This coalition of the two parties seems more committed to over-development and the eradication of wildlife and wildlife habitat than providing Canberrans with a liveable city that is proud to call itself the ‘bush capital’.

“In the short term, the AJP ACT Chapter will work with the Liberal Party, the Belco Party and independents to push for a moratorium in 2025 and a genuinely independent review of the annual kangaroo ‘cull’.

“Over the next four years, the AJP will continue to build our membership, take on campaigns and actions to reduce animal cruelty and work towards more successful elections in the future.”

The Belco Party‘s vote halved in Ginninderra (4.5 per cent, a 4.9 per cent swing against); in Yerrabi, where it ran for the first time, it received 1.6 per cent of the vote in Yerrabi. Co-convenor Bill Stefaniak attributed the result to competition from Independents for Canberra and Elizabeth Kikkert; in 2020, he said, the Belco Party had been the only well-organised independent group in Canberra.

Mr Stefaniak said he would no longer contest any elections; he hopes Angela Lount will become the party’s new convenor. Co-convenor Jason Taylor has joined the Australian Federal Police Association as a result of his work for the Belco Party.

“The Belco Party will lick its wounds, and have a detailed examination of where we could have done better and where to from here, but the core people in the party are keen to continue,” Mr Stefaniak said.

The Belco Praty congratulated all successful candidates in the 2024 election, particularly Independents Tom Emerson and Fiona Carrick; urged the re-elected Labor government to consider a more collaborative approach; and encouraged the Canberra Liberals to remain hopeful for the future.

The Strong Independents received 2.3 per cent of the vote in Kurrajong. Peter Strong AM said: “It’s of course disappointing to not be there in the big tent, but well done to those who are and to all those who supported democracy – it’s a wonderful thing. Particularly well done to Fiona Carrick – she and her supporters are so good and so focussed on their community. Well done too, to all those who supported the IFC. Imagine.”

Ann Bray said: “Whilst I am disappointed with the results, Canberra has spoken. I’m very thankful to our supporters and those who had faith in us. Canberra is a great city full of great people, but there are many less fortunate who need help. I will be looking at ways I can best give back to the community and those who need a hand.”

Family First received 2.4 per cent of the vote, doing its best in Ginninderra (4.7 per cent), where former Canberra Liberals MLA Elizabeth Kikkert stood.

“Family First’s volunteers & supporters fought valiantly to keep the pro-family voice of Elizabeth Kikkert in the Assembly,” national director Lyle Shelton said.

“Sadly, the Liberals’ rejection of her for the ‘progressive’ status quo policies of abortion-to-birth, child gender transitions, legal drugs, unaffordable rates and unsustainable debt means mainstream family concerns will be on the back burner for at least another four years.

“For a first-time entrant into ACT politics, Family First takes encouragement out of its 4.7 per cent vote in Ginninderra and in achieving 2 per cent or more in two of the other four electorates [Brindabella and Yerrabi].

“Family First is now well-established in the ACT and will continue to put the concerns of mainstream families first at future elections.”

“In this election, voters had a renewed focus on supporting people experiencing poverty and other forms of disadvantage and exclusion,” ACTCOSS CEO Dr Devin Bowles said.

“The final few seats are still being determined. However, all of the candidates who were elected ran on a platform of improving support to the community sector, so people in need can get the assistance they require. The community sector delivers essential front-line services for all Canberrans.

“All of the elected candidates except those running for Labor pledged to link funding for the community sector with population growth.

(ACTCOSS had run a campaign for constituents to index funding to population growth – a 30 per cent increase or $260 million – for the underfunded community sector, warning that organisations could close.)

“Labor also pledged to look at this issue in the first six months of Government. We are optimistic an automatic Population Level Adjustment can be included as an essential part of a Parliamentary and Governing Agreement.

“If Labor forms government, we hope that it recognises that the most likely Legislative Assembly composition includes 60 per cent of the candidates who backed community sector funding to automatically increase in line with population growth.”

Australian Education Union (AEU) ACT

“As the union representing ACT public schools and the Canberra Institute of Technology, we value developing and maintaining constructive relationships with elected representatives of the ACT Legislative Assembly to advance our positive agenda for public education,” AEU ACT branch president Angela Burroughs said.

“That is what we pursued in the last term of the Assembly. We will be doing the same when the composition of this new Assembly is finalised, and we know who has responsibility for education portfolios.

“Prior to election, the AEU ACT developed an election pledge articulating our vision for how the ACT Government can do a great job at making public education thrive over the next four years. We asked the three major political parties to sign up. Labor and the Greens signed our pledge whereas the Liberals took a different approach. The Independents for Canberra also signed up. This strong support for our pledge is great for public education.

“The pledge statements involve commitments to ensuring public schools and CIT are excellent, equitable and well-funded. In relation to public schools, the pledge includes commitments to staff safety, improvements to pay and working conditions, and a willingness to engage in creative and courageous solutions to educator burnout. There is also an emphasis on infrastructure improvements and properly funding system wide initiatives such as the implementation of the literacy and numeracy review findings and the plan for inclusive education.

“The pledge statements relating to CIT include appropriately funding CIT as the public provider of vocational education; achieving pay parity for CIT educators; and supporting CIT students to succeed with increased resourcing to develop language, literacy, numeracy and digital skills.

“I’m looking forward to continuing to work with ACT Labor and the newly elected Assembly representatives to deliver for public education.”

Alcohol Tobacco and Other Drug Association ACT (ATODA)

“ATODA congratulates all successfully elected candidates in the 2024 election,” ATODA CEO Anita Mills said. “We are pleased to be able to continue working with the government to ensure the ACT has the lowest possible levels of harm from alcohol and other drugs. We are committed to asking for a stronger focus on alcohol regulation, investment in a strong and sustainable alcohol and other drug treatment sector, and further investment in evidence-based ham reduction services in the ACT

“ATODA would also like to acknowledge outgoing Population Health Minister, Emma Davidson who was very supportive of the community sector in her time holding the portfolio. We wish her well in her next chapter.

“ATODA is also looking forward to working with newly elected independents, Thomas Emerson and Fiona Carrick, to ensure that community health and equity stay firmly on the agenda in the next term of ACT government.”

Better Renting

“I’m looking forward to what this new Assembly can achieve on housing,” Better Renting executive director Joel Dignam said. “A key piece is making it legal to build more housing close to existing services, and we see a strong appetite across the Assembly for blanket upzoning to remove barriers to housing construction. There are also welcome commitments to explicitly supporting public and community housing.

“Over the last four years, it has been challenging for renters in the ACT, but things have been gradually improving, and we hope that can continue and accelerate in the coming four years. It’s also important to keep strengthening rental laws: we’re keen to see further action on minimum energy efficiency standards and protections against rent increases, as well as the introduction of a rental commissioner.”

Canberra Business Chamber

“The Canberra Business Chamber congratulates Chief Minister Andrew Barr and his team for a record-breaking election win,” chief executive Greg Harford said. “The Chamber looks forward to continuing to work with him and the new Executive over the next four years.”

Conservation Council ACT Region

“The Conservation Council ACT congratulates the Labor Party on what, on current numbers, seems to be their re-election,” executive director Dr Simon Copland said. “Canberrans have put the Government on notice, demanding better, bigger, and bolder. We call on the new Government, no matter how it is formed, to be stronger on the environment, through fixing our Nature Laws and ending the destruction of our natural habitats to build sprawling, unaffordable suburbs. We must also continue the work on climate change, by speeding up the transition off gas, and by improving public and active travel infrastructure.

“The Conservation Council ACT also thanks outgoing Environment Minister Rebecca Vassarotti for her dedication to the environment in her term as Minister. We wish her all the best for the future.”

Lexi Sekuless

“The outcome of the election is actually dire for Canberra’s creative industries,” Lexi Sekuless, owner of the Mill Theatre at Dairy Road, said. “Labor policy was nothing more than a continuation of the dominance of their edifice complex, too much on bricks and mortar, too little on creative arts.

“If the Greens Labor coalition is restored and the Greens’ Jo Clay made Minister for the Arts, the outlook is brighter. I have written to her in the hope that she can take on the Arts portfolio.

“As I posted publicly before the election, the best policies for the arts were provided by the Greens, the Independents for Canberra and the Canberra Liberals. Each of them, in different ways, had actually listened to the producers, the singers, the designers and the musicians – the makers of art who can truly help build a creative Canberra.”

Master Builders ACT

MBA ACT CEO Anna Neelagama said: “We congratulate the Barr Government on their re-election. We encourage them when negotiating the next Parliamentary and Governing Agreement to place the needs of the building and construction sector front and centre: releasing the right kind of land quickly, reduce planning wait times, and support family building and construction businesses with the right kind of business advisory.”

Public Transport Association of Canberra (PTCBR)

Ryan Hemsley, chair of PTCBR (formerly the ACT Light Rail Coalition), said: “It’s clear that opposing light rail continues to be an electoral dead-weight for the Canberra Liberals.

“If they are serious about wanting a real shot at government, they should drop their ideologically-motivated opposition to this popular project and get on board with Light Rail to Woden.

“However, ACT Labor can’t afford to be complacent. Voters are tired of being asked to wait until 2033 for light rail to cross the lake. An accelerated delivery program for Light Rail Stage 2B must be implemented to stave off a southside revolt at the 2028 election.”

Tom McLuckie

Justice reform advocate Tom McLuckie said: “Depressingly, another 4 years of a Labor-led Government in the ACT, given their past record, will again mean an increased acceptance of criminality, recidivism and rose-tinted nonsense and unproven approaches in sentencing. Victims will continue to be silenced and marginalised.

“I’m sure that four more years of the same is repugnant to many other Canberrans too, and I wish not to be part of it. Hence why we have decided to stop any further posts on our Facebook page [ACTnowforsaferoads], and to spend our time on our family, our grief and what our new normal is to become.

“Four more years of Chief Minister of Smug and his Green partner in crime Rattenbury will see the Territory bankrupt both morally and financially by 2028.

“This is not the city I once loved and cherished.

“I have fought a fight that I deep down knew I could not win, but am glad to have done so, and thanks to all those who have shared kind words and support over the last two and a half years.”

Winnunga Nimmityjah

“I am not sure what this means other than business as usual,” Julie Tongs, CEO of Winnunga Nimmityjah Aboriginal Health and Community Services, said.

There will be a new minister for corrections, justice health, and mental health, maybe Andrew Barr. All three portfolios need a champion in government. He might even consider elevating Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Affairs into [the Chief Minister’s Directorate], as it was in Jon Stanhope’s government.

“We have some of the worst health, housing, education and child protection outcomes in the country, and no-one seems to care.”