Anthony Albanese may have ruled out an early federal election, but Australians will head to the polls in several close and critical political contests in 2024.
Residents in three jurisdictions will vote in state or territory elections throughout the next 12 months, while a by-election in a marginal federal electorate in Victoria is also on the cards.
The likely first election this year will be the by-election in the federal seat of Dunkley, on Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, following the death of Labor MP Peta Murphy.
Ms Murphy, who died in December, had held the seat since 2019 and recorded a 3.5 per cent swing at the last federal poll.
A date for the by-election is yet to be set, but is likely in the early months of the year.
Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said swings against the government were usually between four and five per cent at by-elections in government-held seats.
With Labor holding Dunkley by 6.2 per cent, Mr Bonham said it was set to be a close contest.
“What we know from past by-elections is that you might think when an MP dies there’s a sympathy vote, but you don’t get one,” he told AAP.
“This is the first case when a female sitting MP in the House of Representatives has died, so it possibly might be different.”
In the ACT, voters go the polls on October 19 with the Liberals looking to form government for the first time there since 2001.
Chief Minister Andrew Barr, the longest-serving state or territory leader in office, will be looking to win a third election as chief minister, with Labor currently in government as part of a coalition with the Greens.
“The problem with the ACT for the Liberals is the ACT is so left, it’s really hard for them to win there,” Mr Bonham said.
“They may do considerably better than last time, but to get to a point where there’s anything other than a Labor-Green government is difficult.”
In the Northern Territory voters will head to the polls on August 24 to determine the next government and chief minister.
The contest comes following the resignation of former territory leader Natasha Fyles in December 2023 after controversy over undisclosed shares.
She was replaced by Eva Lawler, who will go up against Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro.
The Queensland state election comes a week later and after the recent resignation of former Labor premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
Her successor Steven Miles will be looking to steer the party to a fourth term, but Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is hoping the LNP can win office for the first time in more than a decade.
Mr Bonham said the upcoming campaign could prove challenging for the Queensland government.
“The two biggest determining factors is the age of the state government and which party is in government federally,” he said.
“Steven Miles does not have either on his side, and that makes it very challenging.”
By Andrew Brown in Canberra
